Here’s a terrifying thing that’s almost certainly going to happen. At some point in the not-too-distant future, SCOTUS is going to be forced to decide on the limits (if any) of Comrade Trump’s authority. I don’t know what the issue will be. Maybe it’ll be about marriage equality, maybe about immigration or birthright citizenship, maybe about his authority to dismantle entire federal agencies without Congressional approval.
But at some point, THIS IS GOING TO HAPPEN. SCOTUS and POTUS will face off with the Constitution on the line. Maybe SCOTUS will just give up and agree Trump is king/dictator. That’s horrifying, but possible. But they may also rule there are limits to his authority. I like to think that’s more likely (but then I didn’t think it was likely that Trump would be re-elected, so what do I know?).
The question is this: what will happen when Trump ignores SCOTUS? Because he almost certainly will. I’m just going to remind you that SCOTUS has no power to enforce its rulings. In fact, the entire judicial branch of government at every level–municipal, county, state, and federal–depends on the executive branch of government to enforce its decisions. When a judge says, “Do this thing,” it falls to law enforcement agencies (which are part of the executive function of governance) to see that the thing is done.
But what happens if/when the court says, “Do this” and the executive branch says, “Nope”? What happens if/when the Supreme Court of the United States says, “Do this” and the President of the United States says, “Nope”?
Let’s say, for example, that Comrade Trump issues an executive order ending birthright citizenship and further orders people born in the US to immigrant parents be deported. Let’s also say SCOTUS rules those orders are clearly unconstitutional under the 14th Amendment of the Constitution, which states, “All persons born or naturalized in the United States, and subject to the jurisdiction thereof, are citizens of the United States and of the State wherein they reside.” And finally, let’s say Trump says, “Yeah, I’m deporting them anyway” and follows through on that.
What happens?
There aren’t many remedies. The 25th Amendment of the Constitution allows VPOTUS and the Cabinet to remove POTUS if he’s “unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office.” But what if he’s just unwilling to do his duty? And what if the Cabinet agrees with POTUS (which, after all, is exactly why he picked those corrupt fucks)? The 25th Amendment assumes a Cabinet comprised of people with integrity and a firm belief in representative democracy. We don’t have one of those. So what else can be done?
There’s impeachment by the House of Representatives and conviction by the Senate, which would remove POTUS from office. But how likely is that? There’s also the 2028 election. But even if there’s a free and fair election, we know Trump is unlikely to willingly leave office.
That’s basically it. Those are essentially the only legal options if POTUS defies SCOTUS. The less-than-legal options? A military coup. Citizen rebellion, insurrection, revolution. Before the 2024 election, these would have been unthinkable. Now…who knows?
Let’s say Trump refuses to follow a decision by SCOTUS. What happens? I can see mass protests by citizens. I can see Trump ordering US troops to help state and local law enforcement to suppress those protests. I can see him ordering them to fire on protesters. I can see some commanders/troops refusing to follow those illegal orders.
Again, such a scenario was unthinkable a few months ago. Now it seems possible. Now it seems almost inevitable. Because Trump IS assaulting the US Constitution. And SCOTUS will eventually have to deal with that. And IF they rule against Trump, it’s exceedingly likely he’ll ignore them and do whatever the fuck he wants.
And if he ignores them…well, then. Here we are.
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