cinematic epistemology

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It’s pretty clear that the main actors in the war against Iran are operating under a system of cinematic epistemology. I’m talking about Comrade President Trump, the Secretary of What Used to be the Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, and the entirety of Comrade Trump’s Cabinet of Nazgûl.

Cinematic epistemology is a term coined by Julian Sanchez. Basically, epistemology is the study of how we know what we know–how we achieve an understanding of how the world works. Cinematic epistemology is an understanding of the world grounded in movies. It’s naive, of course. Love in real life doesn’t work out the way it does in a rom-com. Criminal investigations aren’t done they way they’re depicted in television cop shows. Wars aren’t fought and won they way they are in action films.

But that’s exactly how Trump and Hegseth viewed their assault on Iran. Send in the Air Force, bomb the absolute shit out of a bunch of targets, let Hegseth make a few movie speeches accompanied by manly hand gestures, let Trump threaten our enemies and mock our allies, intimidate the nation into submission. Surely, once our allies saw our overwhelming military might, they’d wish they’d been a part of the war. Surely, once Iran saw they were up against a vastly superior military force, they’d quickly give in. TrumpCo knew it would take longer than a movie screening, but in their minds the outcome was pretty much guaranteed. Punch Iran in the face, take the fight out of them, roll credits.

It didn’t help that it largely did work like that in Venezuela. That quick, limited, precise military operation only solidified their cinematic world view. Trump, on Fox News, even said, “I watched it literally like I was watching a television show. If you would’ve seen the speed, the violence…it was an amazing thing.” But Iran isn’t Venezuela. Everybody knew Iran would hit back. Well, everybody but the folks encouraging Trump to attack Iran.

Iran, predictably, did hit back. They hit everybody in the region who’d who’d cooperated with the US. Trump and his people were surprised. “They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” Trump said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.” He went on to say, “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. No, the greatest experts—nobody thought they were going to hit.”

The actual experts, of course, knew Iran would hit back. Actual experts assumed Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz. The actual experts understood the international scope of a shooting war involving Iran. The actual experts realized a war in Iran could/would lead to a global energy crisis that could/would result in fuel and food shortages in the US and possibly a global recession.

The problem with actual experts is that the Trump administration got rid of them.

TrumpCo, of course, doesn’t know what to do now. Hegseth apparently wants to keep bombing, hoping somehow that just a few more bombs will make all the difference. Trump is bored with the movie; it’s lasting too long and he’s not enjoying the plot; he’d like to just leave the theater. He’s bored with the movie and furious that he bought a ticket to begin with. He’s pissed and desperate and is flailing about wildly.

My biggest fear right now is that Trump, out of spite or because he has a child’s self-control, will decide to set fire to the theater.

bikes make you 12

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Here’s the thing about bicycles: they turn you into a 12-year-old. It’s hard for some folks to admit, but there it is. Solid fact. You get on a bike, and every single cell in your body remembers what it was like to be twelve years old. It doesn’t matter what sort of bike you ride, or why you ride, or when you ride, or the manner in which you ride, you become twelve again. It’s just a fact.

You cycle for fitness? That means riding hard and fast…which is what you did when you were twelve. Not all the time, of course, but every 12-year-old on a bike has ridden like the demons of Hell were chasing behind them. It’s fun to ride fast and hard. Sure, sure, sure, you may be genuinely serious about fitness. You may be wearing lycra and Shimano RC9 cycling shoes because adults believe in optimization. You may be measuring stuff (pulse, cadence, average speed, elevation gain, etc.) because adults feel the need to measure stuff and compare results. But down the bone and gristle, you’re riding like you’re twelve–because it’s fun. There’s a weird joy in cycling really really fast.

Who likes riding really really fast? 12-year-olds, that’s who.

You cycle for transportation? You’re twelve. Your bike is how you got around when you were twelve. You rode your bike to visit your friends, you rode to school, you rode to the park, you rode to the local market to buy candy or a soda or shoplift cigarettes. Now you’re riding to the office or to a coffee shop to meet friends or to the market for fresh vegetables (and if you smoke, please shoplift your cigarettes; don’t give those fuckers your money). Yes, yes, cycling is an efficient, healthy, cost-effective, environmentally friendly means of transportation, and that’s all very adult…but there’s a part of you that knows you’re riding your bike because it’s fun. You’re twelve.

You KNOW your parents would forbid you from riding your bike here.

You ride gravel? You do cyclocross or single tracks? You mountain bike or ride BMX? You’re twelve. You’re riding across the neighbor’s lawn, you’re riding your bike through a construction zone, you’re riding through the neighborhood park, you’re deliberately riding through a puddle, you’re taking your bike where your parents explicitly told you NOT to ride. You’re doing it partly because it’s fun and challenging and partly because your parents told you NOT to ride there. Ask yourself, at what age do kids start being rebellious? Twelve. This is NOT a coincidence.

This is 12-year-old behavior. This is childish. This is fun.

You need more evidence that cycling makes you twelve? Ask your non-cycling friends (you probably have some) how they feel about cycling in general. Odds are they think it’s…childish. It’s not how adults get around. Adults drive. Adults don’t have time for frivolous stuff like riding bikes. Why can’t you just grow up and act your age? (HINT: because you’re twelve years old.)

Still more evidence? Okay, simple test. Get on your bike. Get it in motion. Now take your feet of the pedals, stick them out straight, and gently swerve left and right and left and right, rhythmically back and forth as you coast. How does that feel? It feels great, doesn’t it. You’re twelve.

You’ve done this. If you haven’t done it, you’ve wanted to do it. Go ahead, do it; it’s fun.

You can put on lycra, you can strap a briefcase to your rack. put a bag of groceries in your pannier, you can buy a cargo bike and take your kids to school…doesn’t matter. You know what else doesn’t matter? Your age. If you ride your bike, you become twelve years old again. It just happens. Accept it.

No, don’t just accept it. Celebrate it. You see all those people in cars and pickups and SUVs? They’re locked into adulthood. You? You get to be twelve years old your entire life.

this isn’t a war of choice; it’s a war of impulse

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I read an article recently that referred to “Trump’s hastily planned war.” Hastily planned? This is a war plan drawn on the back of a bar napkin. To describe this as a half-assed war plan would be complimentary. I’ve also seen this war described as “a war of choice.” That’s wrong too. It’s war of impulse–a war that began because of Trump’s urge to do something without giving any thought to the consequences. He’s not conducting a war; he’s winging it.

And it’s entirely pointless. Even if we knew what Trump thought he might accomplish by starting this unprovoked war, it wouldn’t matter…because there’s nothing meaningful that can come out of it. Regime change? Not gonna happen, really. We’re talking about a hard-line extreme Islamic leadership backed up by 125,000 devout and devoted members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, backed up by another 50-90 thousand paramilitary Basij volunteers. The US and/or Israel can kill a whole lot of religious leaders with bombs and missiles, but you can’t kill an army that way. Hell, neither Russia nor the US could destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan, and they’re a ragtag military group. Very dedicated, but not militarily sophisticated.

Another reason Trump has given for starting this unprovoked war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Which they were incapable of doing. They weren’t capable of doing it even before Trump’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities nine months ago; US intelligence estimates back then suggested it would be around a decade before Iran could develop a nuclear weapon and a means to deliver it to the US homeland. Maybe Trump can claim this time he really really really obliterated their nuclear program. But hey, they’ll just start up again, with Russia’s help.

Look, Iran has been a low level threat against the US since 1979. The government of Iran is a fucking nightmare, both to its neighboring countries and to its own people. Every US president since then has done something to punish Iran. So yeah, we’ve been in constant conflict with Iran. Our relationship with Iran is a lot like our relationship with North Korea. But here’s the thing: there’s not much we can do to make Iran (or North Korea, for that matter) a better place.

Smarter presidents than Trump looked at Iran and tried to moderate their behavior through diplomacy, propaganda, and aid packages. Trump shitcanned international aid, killed off the US propaganda outlets (like Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty), and replaced professional diplomats with venal, greed-headed real estate vultures. Now US international policy is grounded in threats, insults, open corruption, and the occasional punch in the face.

So how does this unprovoked (and yes, I’ll keep repeating the fact that this stupid war was unprovoked) war end? Fuck if I know. If we’re lucky, Trump will just announce that he’s won the war and will withdraw US forces from the region. The world economy will remain fucked up; the US economy will be tanked, but at least we won’t be in a stupid war. Or at least we won’t be in that particular stupid war. Trump is perfect capable of starting another stupid war somewhere else. Like Cuba.

If we’re not lucky? I hate to even think about it.

how stupid is this war?

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All wars are stupid, even the rare necessary ones. Some folks say war is never necessary, and while I respect that belief, I disagree with it. I believe there are a few valid reasons for a nation…any nation…to go to war. All of those reasons are responsive–taken in response to some specific act. Military aggression by another nation, for example, or the protection of innocent human life. Maybe even to restore international order.

All three of those reasons would apply to a war defending Ukraine against the Russian invasion. None of those reasons apply to Trump’s decision to initiate a war with Iran. In fact, a war with Iran actually aids Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

As I said three weeks ago, You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. I’m just a random guy who reads a lot and follows the news, and even I knew Iran would 1) retaliate militarily and 2) close the Strait of Hormuz. By all accounts, Comrade President Trump’s advisors told him the same thing. He discounted their advice and attacked Iran anyway.

Closing of the Straits jeopardizes the economies of most of Europe, most of whom are providing support to Ukraine. Closing the Straits benefits Russia, because Russian oil becomes more in demand. Russia’s oil and gas revenue financed the invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe against Russian oil have made it more difficult for Russia to sustain their aggression. The US has lifted some of those sanctions in order to keep fuel prices in check. The revenues generated by lifting the sanctions helps Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, by the way, has also been supplying Iran with 1) the drones used to attack ships in the Straits and US forces deployed in the Middle East, and 2) intelligence regarding the locations and defensive characteristics of US forces. Russia has absolutely no incentive to stop providing drones and intel to Iran. The longer the Iran war goes on, the better for Russia and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Trump is better at dancing than he is at conducting a war, and he sucks at dancing.

Trump’s assault on Iran and subsequent lifting of Russian oil sanctions not only helps Russia achieve its political and military objectives, it also hurts traditional US allies and sows global chaos. And as usual, Trump has absolutely no plan to resolve any of this. He is, however, making bank off the war. Trump’s sons invested heavily in companies that manufacture…that’s right. Drones.

None of this was necessary. It will take years…maybe generations…to undo the damage Trump has inflicted on the United States in fifteen months. But it would be nice if we could kickstart the recovery by putting lots of Trumps in prison.

in which i fuck up (but still have fun)

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Let me first say this: I enjoy the hell out of my wee Ricoh GR3X camera. I’ve owned and used lots of cameras over the years, but I’ve never had one that suits my approach to photography so perfectly. I love that I can quickly shift between full manual control (which is a slower process but gives me control over every aspect of the exposure) and a setting that allows me choose the aperture I want and let the camera handle the rest (which is quicker and far more useful for street photography).

Last Friday I took a walk and decided to try something new. For the first hour or so, I’d shoot entirely in monochrome using the street settings AND I wouldn’t chimp the results. (For non-photographers, ‘chimping’ is reviewing the photos you just shot, which can inspire you to go “Ooh ooh” like a chimpanzee.) The second half of the walk, I’d shoot normally.

This where I fucked up. I somehow managed to change the street settings so the camera’s ISO was set to a minimum of 6400. What does that mean? ISO refers to the standardized scale that measures the sensitivity of a digital camera’s sensor to light. All you really need to know is this: the higher the ISO, the more ‘noise’ you see in the final image. In daytime, standard ISO settings are usually between 100 to 400. I was noodling around with an ISO that was at least sixteen times higher than normal. The result? Images like this:

As you can see, noisy. But because I was refusing to chimp, I was unaware of the problem. So for an hour or so, I kept wandering, kept looking at stuff, kept shooting at the wrong ISO. When I saw a pair of workmen–one prone on the sidewalk with his head inside a manhole, the other feeding some sort of conduit tubing into the hole–laboring with the golden dome of the State Capitol Building behind them, I paused long enough to shoot a photo. I was confident I composed a decent shot, and the camera did its best to find a correct exposure based on the settings…but yeah, noise.

The thing is, I’ve learned to trust the camera. I’ve learned it’s incredibly responsive, that (assuming I’ve set it up properly) it allows me to shoot quickly, reflexively, on impulse. For example, I saw this tattooed guy in a tee shirt, toting bags of groceries, and wearing a ski mask. He was at a crosswalk, waiting for the traffic light to turn (or for the traffic to ease up enough for him to jaywalk). There was no time to properly compose a shot, but with the Ricoh all I had to do was react. I simply raised the camera in his direction and pressed the shutter button. Easy peasy, lemon squeezy. Except, of course, for that ISO of 6400.

Noisy. Harsh. But I can’t blame the camera. I’m the one who fucked up. I’m not saying these photograph would have been great if I hadn’t fucked up, but they’d have been…well, better.

And that’s okay. Making mistakes is human, right? And I’m an avid believer in what Alfred Stieglitz called ‘practicing in public.’ He wrote,

“Some people go on the assumption that if a thing is not a hundred percent perfect it should not be given to the world… Either you feel that a thing must be perfect before you present it to the public, or you are willing to let it go out even knowing that it is not perfect, because you are striving for something even beyond what you have achieved.

I wouldn’t claim these photographs are ‘given to the world.’ More like inflicted on the world. But yeah, I’m surely ‘striving for something beyond what I’ve achieved.’ Because what I’ve achieved here is that I fucked up. I suspect I’ll continue to fuck up on (I hope) an irregular basis.

Despite fucking up, I still had a good time. I not only believe in practicing in public, I also believe any walk on a sunny day is a good walk. And I believe in the reality of the Happy Accident, of which I have some evidence: I actually rather like the final ISO-fucked photo, which happens to be a selfie.

well, shit…

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It looks like Comrade President Trump is going to launch an assault on Iran. Why? Who the fuck knows? Trump certainly doesn’t.

Trump’s offered a few different reasons why he’d like to attack Iran. He’s said it’s probably necessary because of Iran’s nuclear program (which he claimed he’d obliterated just a few months ago). He’s also said an assault may be necessary to protect the right of the citizens of Iran to peacefully demonstrate (which is more than he’s willing to do for the citizens of Minnesota). He’s muttered something about regime change.

The fact is, Trump hasn’t articulated any actual cause to justify an attack on Iran. He hasn’t done any of the stuff democracy expects before a Commander-in-Chief sends troops into harm’s way. He hasn’t consulted Congress, he hasn’t tried to convince the American citizenry of any need, he hasn’t said why an assault is necessary at this particular point in time. All he’s done is make a few casual remarks when talking to reporters. Well, he’s also shifted a significant chunk of US naval military might into the region. Why? Because maybe he’ll decide he feels like launching an attack. You know, for reasons.

I mean, we know why he’s doing this really. He’s doing it because he thinks it makes him seem manly (and because Pete Hegseth has a combat stiffy). He’s doing it because he’s frustrated with the recent SCOTUS decision regarding tariffs. He’s doing it because he enjoys knowing he has the power to do it. He’s doing it because he wants the rest of the world to be afraid of him, to curry his favor. And he’s doing it because he desperately needs another distraction from the Epstein files, given the recent development with Prince Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. And given the fact that his Secretary of Commerce has been caught lying about his relationship with Epstein. And given the fact that another half dozen of Trump’s inner circle are mentioned in the Epstein files. And given the painfully obvious fact that Trump his ownself is mentioned in the files more than a million times.

But Trump is also a coward. He might NOT do it. Not for any responsible reason, but because he’s afraid of what might come next. He truly likes to think of himself–and have others think of him–as a wartime president. But Iran isn’t Venezuela. You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. Back in June of last year, when Trump launched his attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Iran launched a reprisal assault on US bases in Qatar. The next day, Trump announced a ceasefire. Back in 2020, Trump approved a drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Five days later, Iran launched a series of missile attacks on US bases in Iraq AND shot down a civilian Ukrainian airliner. Trump didn’t respond to those counter-attacks. Trump, remember, is the POTUS who shrugged when told Russia was paying bounties for US forces killed in Afghanistan.

Trump isn’t afraid to hit others, but he’s terrified of being hit in return. There’s a reason they call him TACO Don (Trump Always Chickens Out). So he might choose not to attack Iran again.

Or he might. That’s the thing about Trump. He’s not motivated by anything except money, power, and whatever stimulus is triggering his central nervous system at any given moment. There’s a very real chance he’ll launch an attack on Iran simply because he’s moved all those military resources there and thinks he might as well do something with them.

All we can do is resist. And mutter, “Well, shit…” when he does something wildly stupid and harmful. And vote. Vote in every election–federal, state, county, municipal, vote out the motherfuckers who support Trump. Vote out every motherfucker who tolerates Trump. Resist and vote until one day we can wake up and read the news and NOT mutter, “Well, shit…”

cnut, hammett, and trump

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I recently mentioned to a friend that, despite the ongoing horror of Minneapolis, I feel more optimistic about the future than I did a year ago. And he agreed. He said something like, “It’s that whole King Cnut thing, right? Trump may think he’s the king, but even the king can’t hold back the tide.”

I stopped myself from correcting him. For some reason, people think the Cnut versus the Tide story is about Cnut’s arrogance. It’s not. I’ve forgotten the issue at hand, but Cnut’s posse was suggesting that as king, he had godlike powers. Cnut was saying, “Nope, I’m just a guy with a good job.” When he set his throne on the beach and ordered the tide NOT to get his feet wet, he was demonstrating the fact that he couldn’t hold back the tide.

Cnut getting his shoes wet.

But aside from buggering up the analogy, my friend is (I think) correct. Trump may think he’s got godlike authority. He’s certainly acting like it. In Minneapolis, in Greenland, in courtrooms across the US, in social media. Just yesterday on his Truth Social site, he (or one of this fluffers) wrote:

In Minnesota, the Troublemakers, Agitators, and Insurrectionists are, in many cases, highly paid professionals. The Governor and Mayor don’t know what to do, they have totally lost control, and our [sic] currently being rendered, USELESS! If, and when, I’m forced to act, it will be solved, QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY! President DJT

This is Trump distilled. Three lines–all lies–that encompass Trump’s view of the world. First, he presumes nobody ever takes a risk for any reason other than personal gain. If people demonstrate against him, somebody must be paying them. Second, he’s compelled to belittle and insult those who oppose or disagree with him. And third, he needs to assert his own superiority–to brag about his own abilities. It’s all there in three lines.

Does he actually believe all that? Maybe. I don’t know. Dashiell Hammett, in a 1923 short story, wrote, ‘If a man says a thing often enough, he is very likely to acquire some sort of faith in it sooner or later.’ Hammett was pretty astute. I assume there are moments when Trump is truly convinced he’s a superior being.

It doesn’t really matter if Trump believes his own bullshit. The tide doesn’t. And like my friend, I’m inclined to believe the tide is slowly turning against Trump. He’ll shout and threaten and bluster and bribe, but he’ll never control Greenland and he’ll never subdue Minneapolis.

The tide is an insistent sumbitch.

in fear for my life

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By now, we’ve all seen the various videos of the recent horrific event in Minneapolis. TrumpCo and MAGA are pressing the view that the shooting was justified. What they want you to hear is that Jonathan Ross is a highly trained, experienced law enforcement officer who shot and killed a professional radical agitator who attempted to murder him with her car. His behavior, they claim, was justified because he was in fear for his life.

Another perspective. Renee Nicole Good was a 37-year-old mother of three (a daughter and two sons), a poet, and a stay-at-home mom married to Rebecca Good. They’d recently moved to Minneapolis from Kansas City. She volunteered to be a legal observer monitoring ICE operations in her new home. She and her wife (and dog) were surrounded by masked and uniformed armed men who were yelling at her and aggressively attempting to open her car door, She attempted to leave the scene, likely because she was in fear for her life.

There’s no doubt that fear makes people do stupid stuff. Fear makes people act on impulse rather than reason. Fear is valid.

But the law, it seems, prioritizes the fear of policing agents. The law prioritizes the fear of the only people at the scene who are carrying weapons. The law prioritizes the fear of the only people at the scene who have the legal authority to shoot people. The law prioritizes the fear of the only people at the scene who are trained when and how to use deadly force. The law prioritized the fear of the only people at the scene who have been trained NOT to give in to their fear. The law not only prioritizes their fear, it justifies it.

The law does not consider the fear of a woman surrounded by several masked armed men yelling at her and attempting to drag her and her wife from their vehicle. The law does not value the fear experienced by Renee Nicole Good.

EDITORIAL NOTE: Patriarchy must be smashed. The shattered splinters that remain must be ground into dust. That dust must be encased in lead and buried in an unmarked grave in the deepest desert.