is he making this up as he goes along? “obiviously.”

As you almost certainly know, Comrade Trump was recently asked how much thought he was giving to the financial situation of Americans in his negotiations with Iran. His answer:

“Not even a little bit. The only thing that matters when I’m talking about Iran—they can’t have a nuclear weapon. I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation. I don’t think about anybody. I think about one thing—we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon. That’s all.”

For the moment, let’s just ignore the fact that Iran has NO nuclear weapons and currently lacks the capacity to create them. Let’s just focus on that statement and the reaction to it. Obviously, a LOT of US citizens were offended and angered by it. But what about Trump’s base? Specifically, let’s see what the Trump-loving ‘patriots’ at FreeRepublic had to say about it.

You may be surprised (well, I was surprised) to find Freepers were almost evenly divided about Trump’s comments (and his ‘excursion’ in Iran in general). I expected the majority to be maximally Trump-brained, and some most certainly were.

You can always count on CBS to slice out a piece of a Trump statement to make it sound as bad as possible. Keeping the nukes out is well worth the price but the Trump haters have no vision beyond that hatred.
by gibsonguy

Nothing would destroy the USA financial well-being like an Iranian nuke going off in a major city.
by ProtectOurFreedom

America first means doing what it takes to remove the Iran nuclear threat. How is this so hard to understand? I would gladly pay $7 at the pump if that’s what it takes.
by Kleon

Why aren’t Liberals mad at Iran for the high gas prices and general disorder in the mid east?
by Az Joe

As the leader of the free world you need to lead by example and through the strength that you possess to do the right thing and stand up for other democracies… Israel is the only Democratic country in the Middle East. By standing with them you instill discipline within the world community, and establish your credentials as the leader of the free world.
Imagine if you will, letting Israel flounder and allowing it to be nuked by Iran… That would be a terrible example and other countries would start losing respect for America. The United States must lead… Sitting on your arse is not an option.
by jerod

Terrorist muslims bent on death to America with a nuclear weapon is the GREATEST threat to our national security that I can think of.
Trump is not doing this because he wants to but because he cares more about America than those who preceded him office and likely cares more than those who will likely succeed him.
by Biblebelter

That’s pretty much what I was expecting to find. But hold on to your keffiyehs, friends, because a surprising number of Freepers are angry and disgusted with Trump and his war against Iran. Who’d a thunk it?

I watched that video and proves Trump is out of touch with the average American but he is more worried about his Stock Market pals… He will pay a steep price for being out of touch. Wonder what happened to America First!
by dpetty121263

Americans who don’t watch CBS, who voted for Trump, are also economically hurting right now.
by CondoleezzaProtege

If Trump is dead set with Iran not having nuclear weapons then he needs to put troops on the ground instead of doing it all by air right now. He also would not be negotiating.
He is making things worse by negotiating. This is his screw up. The economy is going to crap. Republicans will lose big. Either pull out or go all the way in.
Obiviously he is making it up as he is going along and this adventure was poorly planned.
by moviefan8

Tucker says Iran is no where close to having a nuke. Tucker has intelligence that is so much better than Trump’s. Trump just wanted to go to war because, well because, er well…cause Epstein.
by Sir Bangaz Cracka

What most likely happened was Trump believed he was going to replay his grand Venezuelan victory out in Tehran. It blew up in his face, and now we all have to pretend that we were going to get incinerated at any moment if Trump had not blundered into this stupid war
by hcmama

There you are. Trump, being Trump, naturally had to double down on his comment. When asked about it after his return from China, he said, “It’s a perfect statement. I’ll make it again. Everybody agrees.”

President Xi Jinping and…you know, that guy.

He’s right, sort of. Almost everybody does agree–that Trump doesn’t know what the hell is going on, isn’t capable of understanding what’s going on even if he knew, and doesn’t have a plan to deal with what’s going on. Obiviously (which is probably how Trump pronounces it).

ENDNOTE: Just to be clear, at present Iran has neither the material nor the capacity to make any nuclear weapons. The CIA has confirmed it would take at least one year to create a nuclear weapon IF they had the technologies necessary to produce enough fissile material and to design and implement a delivery system with a proper detonation system. And they don’t have that. Obiviously.

doesn’t really matter

I generally think conspiratorial thought process are the province of cranks and folks who watch too much television. So I find it sort of alarming when people I know to be thoughtful, intelligent, reasonable, and logical start suggesting that the recent incident at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner was staged.

I understand some of the reasons they feel that way. Let’s face it, it was a weird and improbable event in itself. Much of the apparent weirdness is compounded by the fact that most folks don’t really understand how perimeter security works or how difficult it is to shoot a moving target. There’s no reason they should have an understanding of those things. But a little clarity might help.

The moment Allen Cole ran through the security magnetometer

People keep asking how Cole Allen (I don’t know why everybody keeps calling him ‘the shooter’ since even the Secret Service agrees he never fired a shot) got through so many security personnel. Why, they ask, weren’t the security staff paying more attention? And how did the Secret Service officer firing his weapon at Cole Allen miss him?

Here’s why the security staff wasn’t paying more attention: their job was done. Once all the invited guests had been cleared and admitted into the ballroom where the dinner was taking place (one level below the checkpoint where Allen was stopped), the ballroom was made secure. The ballroom doors were closed and guarded, as were the elevators, stairs, and escalators leading to that level. At that point, the duty of security had been passed to a different team. Perimeter security is relaxed and the physical apparatus can be dismantled. It just saves time. The fact is, staff aren’t very concerned about intruders because there’s no place an intruder can go. When Cole Allen scooted through the magnetometer, he only succeeded in boxing himself in.

How did the Secret Service officer manage to fire at least four times at a target only a few feet away from him and miss? I blame this on television, which gives viewers a wildly unrealistic understanding of firearms and shooting. Hitting a moving target with a handgun is hard, even with training. The faster the target is moving, the harder it becomes (and Cole Allen was fast). Toss in the stress and adrenaline produced by an event of this kind, and it becomes harder still. Most often, you end up firing at a space the target occupied a fraction of a second earlier. It’s not all that surprising that the officer missed (well, missed Cole Allen, anyway; it seems likely he accidentally tagged one of his fellow officers).

But that misunderstanding of how the world actually works is just part of the reason folks are leaning toward the belief that the incident was staged. Another reason is that nobody trusts the current administration to tell the truth about anything. Representative democracy depends in large part on the assumption that 1) the government use of power is legitimate and 2) the citizenry can generally rely on the government to be consistent and relatively honest. Neither of those assumptions apply anymore.

It’s not just that everybody in the Trump administration lies, or that there’s no penalty for lying, or even that they don’t care if everybody knows they’re lying. Down at the bone, the consistent, pervasive, ubiquitous lying erodes the very concept of Truth or shared reality.

For a lot of folks, what actually happened at the WHCD doesn’t matter as much as what they believe might have happened.

cinematic epistemology

It’s pretty clear that the main actors in the war against Iran are operating under a system of cinematic epistemology. I’m talking about Comrade President Trump, the Secretary of What Used to be the Department of Defense, Pete Hegseth, and the entirety of Comrade Trump’s Cabinet of Nazgûl.

Cinematic epistemology is a term coined by Julian Sanchez. Basically, epistemology is the study of how we know what we know–how we achieve an understanding of how the world works. Cinematic epistemology is an understanding of the world grounded in movies. It’s naive, of course. Love in real life doesn’t work out the way it does in a rom-com. Criminal investigations aren’t done they way they’re depicted in television cop shows. Wars aren’t fought and won they way they are in action films.

But that’s exactly how Trump and Hegseth viewed their assault on Iran. Send in the Air Force, bomb the absolute shit out of a bunch of targets, let Hegseth make a few movie speeches accompanied by manly hand gestures, let Trump threaten our enemies and mock our allies, intimidate the nation into submission. Surely, once our allies saw our overwhelming military might, they’d wish they’d been a part of the war. Surely, once Iran saw they were up against a vastly superior military force, they’d quickly give in. TrumpCo knew it would take longer than a movie screening, but in their minds the outcome was pretty much guaranteed. Punch Iran in the face, take the fight out of them, roll credits.

It didn’t help that it largely did work like that in Venezuela. That quick, limited, precise military operation only solidified their cinematic world view. Trump, on Fox News, even said, “I watched it literally like I was watching a television show. If you would’ve seen the speed, the violence…it was an amazing thing.” But Iran isn’t Venezuela. Everybody knew Iran would hit back. Well, everybody but the folks encouraging Trump to attack Iran.

Iran, predictably, did hit back. They hit everybody in the region who’d who’d cooperated with the US. Trump and his people were surprised. “They weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East,” Trump said. “Nobody expected that. We were shocked.” He went on to say, “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. No, the greatest experts—nobody thought they were going to hit.”

The actual experts, of course, knew Iran would hit back. Actual experts assumed Iran would close the Strait of Hormuz. The actual experts understood the international scope of a shooting war involving Iran. The actual experts realized a war in Iran could/would lead to a global energy crisis that could/would result in fuel and food shortages in the US and possibly a global recession.

The problem with actual experts is that the Trump administration got rid of them.

TrumpCo, of course, doesn’t know what to do now. Hegseth apparently wants to keep bombing, hoping somehow that just a few more bombs will make all the difference. Trump is bored with the movie; it’s lasting too long and he’s not enjoying the plot; he’d like to just leave the theater. He’s bored with the movie and furious that he bought a ticket to begin with. He’s pissed and desperate and is flailing about wildly.

My biggest fear right now is that Trump, out of spite or because he has a child’s self-control, will decide to set fire to the theater.

this isn’t a war of choice; it’s a war of impulse

I read an article recently that referred to “Trump’s hastily planned war.” Hastily planned? This is a war plan drawn on the back of a bar napkin. To describe this as a half-assed war plan would be complimentary. I’ve also seen this war described as “a war of choice.” That’s wrong too. It’s war of impulse–a war that began because of Trump’s urge to do something without giving any thought to the consequences. He’s not conducting a war; he’s winging it.

And it’s entirely pointless. Even if we knew what Trump thought he might accomplish by starting this unprovoked war, it wouldn’t matter…because there’s nothing meaningful that can come out of it. Regime change? Not gonna happen, really. We’re talking about a hard-line extreme Islamic leadership backed up by 125,000 devout and devoted members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, backed up by another 50-90 thousand paramilitary Basij volunteers. The US and/or Israel can kill a whole lot of religious leaders with bombs and missiles, but you can’t kill an army that way. Hell, neither Russia nor the US could destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan, and they’re a ragtag military group. Very dedicated, but not militarily sophisticated.

Another reason Trump has given for starting this unprovoked war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Which they were incapable of doing. They weren’t capable of doing it even before Trump’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities nine months ago; US intelligence estimates back then suggested it would be around a decade before Iran could develop a nuclear weapon and a means to deliver it to the US homeland. Maybe Trump can claim this time he really really really obliterated their nuclear program. But hey, they’ll just start up again, with Russia’s help.

Look, Iran has been a low level threat against the US since 1979. The government of Iran is a fucking nightmare, both to its neighboring countries and to its own people. Every US president since then has done something to punish Iran. So yeah, we’ve been in constant conflict with Iran. Our relationship with Iran is a lot like our relationship with North Korea. But here’s the thing: there’s not much we can do to make Iran (or North Korea, for that matter) a better place.

Smarter presidents than Trump looked at Iran and tried to moderate their behavior through diplomacy, propaganda, and aid packages. Trump shitcanned international aid, killed off the US propaganda outlets (like Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty), and replaced professional diplomats with venal, greed-headed real estate vultures. Now US international policy is grounded in threats, insults, open corruption, and the occasional punch in the face.

So how does this unprovoked (and yes, I’ll keep repeating the fact that this stupid war was unprovoked) war end? Fuck if I know. If we’re lucky, Trump will just announce that he’s won the war and will withdraw US forces from the region. The world economy will remain fucked up; the US economy will be tanked, but at least we won’t be in a stupid war. Or at least we won’t be in that particular stupid war. Trump is perfect capable of starting another stupid war somewhere else. Like Cuba.

If we’re not lucky? I hate to even think about it.

how stupid is this war?

All wars are stupid, even the rare necessary ones. Some folks say war is never necessary, and while I respect that belief, I disagree with it. I believe there are a few valid reasons for a nation…any nation…to go to war. All of those reasons are responsive–taken in response to some specific act. Military aggression by another nation, for example, or the protection of innocent human life. Maybe even to restore international order.

All three of those reasons would apply to a war defending Ukraine against the Russian invasion. None of those reasons apply to Trump’s decision to initiate a war with Iran. In fact, a war with Iran actually aids Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

As I said three weeks ago, You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. I’m just a random guy who reads a lot and follows the news, and even I knew Iran would 1) retaliate militarily and 2) close the Strait of Hormuz. By all accounts, Comrade President Trump’s advisors told him the same thing. He discounted their advice and attacked Iran anyway.

Closing of the Straits jeopardizes the economies of most of Europe, most of whom are providing support to Ukraine. Closing the Straits benefits Russia, because Russian oil becomes more in demand. Russia’s oil and gas revenue financed the invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe against Russian oil have made it more difficult for Russia to sustain their aggression. The US has lifted some of those sanctions in order to keep fuel prices in check. The revenues generated by lifting the sanctions helps Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, by the way, has also been supplying Iran with 1) the drones used to attack ships in the Straits and US forces deployed in the Middle East, and 2) intelligence regarding the locations and defensive characteristics of US forces. Russia has absolutely no incentive to stop providing drones and intel to Iran. The longer the Iran war goes on, the better for Russia and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Trump is better at dancing than he is at conducting a war, and he sucks at dancing.

Trump’s assault on Iran and subsequent lifting of Russian oil sanctions not only helps Russia achieve its political and military objectives, it also hurts traditional US allies and sows global chaos. And as usual, Trump has absolutely no plan to resolve any of this. He is, however, making bank off the war. Trump’s sons invested heavily in companies that manufacture…that’s right. Drones.

None of this was necessary. It will take years…maybe generations…to undo the damage Trump has inflicted on the United States in fifteen months. But it would be nice if we could kickstart the recovery by putting lots of Trumps in prison.

well, shit…

It looks like Comrade President Trump is going to launch an assault on Iran. Why? Who the fuck knows? Trump certainly doesn’t.

Trump’s offered a few different reasons why he’d like to attack Iran. He’s said it’s probably necessary because of Iran’s nuclear program (which he claimed he’d obliterated just a few months ago). He’s also said an assault may be necessary to protect the right of the citizens of Iran to peacefully demonstrate (which is more than he’s willing to do for the citizens of Minnesota). He’s muttered something about regime change.

The fact is, Trump hasn’t articulated any actual cause to justify an attack on Iran. He hasn’t done any of the stuff democracy expects before a Commander-in-Chief sends troops into harm’s way. He hasn’t consulted Congress, he hasn’t tried to convince the American citizenry of any need, he hasn’t said why an assault is necessary at this particular point in time. All he’s done is make a few casual remarks when talking to reporters. Well, he’s also shifted a significant chunk of US naval military might into the region. Why? Because maybe he’ll decide he feels like launching an attack. You know, for reasons.

I mean, we know why he’s doing this really. He’s doing it because he thinks it makes him seem manly (and because Pete Hegseth has a combat stiffy). He’s doing it because he’s frustrated with the recent SCOTUS decision regarding tariffs. He’s doing it because he enjoys knowing he has the power to do it. He’s doing it because he wants the rest of the world to be afraid of him, to curry his favor. And he’s doing it because he desperately needs another distraction from the Epstein files, given the recent development with Prince Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. And given the fact that his Secretary of Commerce has been caught lying about his relationship with Epstein. And given the fact that another half dozen of Trump’s inner circle are mentioned in the Epstein files. And given the painfully obvious fact that Trump his ownself is mentioned in the files more than a million times.

But Trump is also a coward. He might NOT do it. Not for any responsible reason, but because he’s afraid of what might come next. He truly likes to think of himself–and have others think of him–as a wartime president. But Iran isn’t Venezuela. You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. Back in June of last year, when Trump launched his attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Iran launched a reprisal assault on US bases in Qatar. The next day, Trump announced a ceasefire. Back in 2020, Trump approved a drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Five days later, Iran launched a series of missile attacks on US bases in Iraq AND shot down a civilian Ukrainian airliner. Trump didn’t respond to those counter-attacks. Trump, remember, is the POTUS who shrugged when told Russia was paying bounties for US forces killed in Afghanistan.

Trump isn’t afraid to hit others, but he’s terrified of being hit in return. There’s a reason they call him TACO Don (Trump Always Chickens Out). So he might choose not to attack Iran again.

Or he might. That’s the thing about Trump. He’s not motivated by anything except money, power, and whatever stimulus is triggering his central nervous system at any given moment. There’s a very real chance he’ll launch an attack on Iran simply because he’s moved all those military resources there and thinks he might as well do something with them.

All we can do is resist. And mutter, “Well, shit…” when he does something wildly stupid and harmful. And vote. Vote in every election–federal, state, county, municipal, vote out the motherfuckers who support Trump. Vote out every motherfucker who tolerates Trump. Resist and vote until one day we can wake up and read the news and NOT mutter, “Well, shit…”

cnut, hammett, and trump

I recently mentioned to a friend that, despite the ongoing horror of Minneapolis, I feel more optimistic about the future than I did a year ago. And he agreed. He said something like, “It’s that whole King Cnut thing, right? Trump may think he’s the king, but even the king can’t hold back the tide.”

I stopped myself from correcting him. For some reason, people think the Cnut versus the Tide story is about Cnut’s arrogance. It’s not. I’ve forgotten the issue at hand, but Cnut’s posse was suggesting that as king, he had godlike powers. Cnut was saying, “Nope, I’m just a guy with a good job.” When he set his throne on the beach and ordered the tide NOT to get his feet wet, he was demonstrating the fact that he couldn’t hold back the tide.

Cnut getting his shoes wet.

But aside from buggering up the analogy, my friend is (I think) correct. Trump may think he’s got godlike authority. He’s certainly acting like it. In Minneapolis, in Greenland, in courtrooms across the US, in social media. Just yesterday on his Truth Social site, he (or one of this fluffers) wrote:

In Minnesota, the Troublemakers, Agitators, and Insurrectionists are, in many cases, highly paid professionals. The Governor and Mayor don’t know what to do, they have totally lost control, and our [sic] currently being rendered, USELESS! If, and when, I’m forced to act, it will be solved, QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY! President DJT

This is Trump distilled. Three lines–all lies–that encompass Trump’s view of the world. First, he presumes nobody ever takes a risk for any reason other than personal gain. If people demonstrate against him, somebody must be paying them. Second, he’s compelled to belittle and insult those who oppose or disagree with him. And third, he needs to assert his own superiority–to brag about his own abilities. It’s all there in three lines.

Does he actually believe all that? Maybe. I don’t know. Dashiell Hammett, in a 1923 short story, wrote, ‘If a man says a thing often enough, he is very likely to acquire some sort of faith in it sooner or later.’ Hammett was pretty astute. I assume there are moments when Trump is truly convinced he’s a superior being.

It doesn’t really matter if Trump believes his own bullshit. The tide doesn’t. And like my friend, I’m inclined to believe the tide is slowly turning against Trump. He’ll shout and threaten and bluster and bribe, but he’ll never control Greenland and he’ll never subdue Minneapolis.

The tide is an insistent sumbitch.

an amazing thing

Before actually addressing the nation, Comrade President Trump called in to Fox & Friends to chat about the raid that captured/kidnapped Venezuelan president Maduro. He said this:

“I mean, I watched it literally l like I was watching a television show. If you would’ve seen the speed, the violence — it was an amazing thing.”

Like I was watching a television show. There it is. Trump and his Cabinet of Yahoo Nazgûl suffer from cinematic epistemology. Their understanding of how the world works–and more importantly, how military operations work–is based on action movies. The good guys (and, again, this is TrumpCo’s definition of ‘good guys’) swoop in quickly, there are explosions and gunfire, a few secondary characters get shot (and maybe die heroically), the bad guys are killed or captured, the good guys manage to barely escape. Once back at their base, the exhausted heroes laugh and joke and maybe weep manly tears for their lost/wounded comrades, but are nevertheless proud to have served their nation. Then the credits roll.

They don’t give much thought to what happens after the credits roll. That shit’s boring. If the film is profitable and draws an appreciative audience, they may consider a sequel. Maybe in a new setting. But basically, once the music starts and the lights go up, the movie’s over. Somebody will clean up and put stuff in order, doesn’t much matter who.

Did some Venezuelans die during this raid? Nobody’s bothered to discuss that. They’re just background actors. Non-player characters. Who cares about NPCs?

Don’t get me wrong, Maduro IS a bad guy. A very bad guy. He’s a dictator; he’s banned opposition parties, he stole Venezuela’s last election, he’d blatantly corrupt, he’s encouraged corruption among his administration and military leaders. He’s approved of torture and murder. He’s made deals with drug dealers. He’s…well, he’s a lot like Trump his ownself.

But Maduro really isn’t the issue. At least not for those of us in the US. The issue for us is that we have a corrupt, delusional president, a Cabinet that caters to his corruption and delusions, a Congress that refuses to challenge him, and a Supreme Court that shrugs off most of his depredations.

We’re not in a goddamn movie. We need leaders who understand that. We desperately need leaders who’ll at least try to hold Trump and his enablers accountable.

Editorial Note: The illustration is an 1883 wood engraving by Albert Robida for his book entitled “Le vingtième siècle” (The Twentieth Century). The original caption is “Les correspondants à la guerre” (The war correspondents).