So, we’re all asking the same question: what happens when this arrogant, mendacious, belligerent, reckless sonofabitch violates his…wait. I’m getting ahead of myself.
I’m talking about Comrade Donald J. Trump, of course. On Thursday, he’ll be arrested for the fourth time. But this time it’s different. It’s different because this time it’s a state case–a case brought against him by the State of Georgia. All the other arrests have been for federal crimes–crimes against the United States of America. It’s also different because this time Trump won’t be released on his own recognizance. This time he’ll have to post bail before he can walk out the door. Cash bail is a tool used to make sure the defendant will show up for trial. Trump’s bail has been set at US$200,000.
Of course, he’ll only have to post 10% of that amount. But even if he posted the full amount, it’s not nearly enough to ensure he’ll show up for trial. Two hundred grand is chump change to Trump. The money is pretty much irrelevant.
But here’s the thing about bail: it has conditions. If the defendant violates those conditions, bail can be revoked. If bail is revoked, the state not only gets to collect and keep the amount of the bail, the defendant (usually) loses his freedom. He goes to jail to await trial.
One of the conditions for Trump’s release is:
The Defendant shall perform no act to intimidate any person known to him or her to be a codefendant or witness in this case or to otherwise obstruct the administration of justice.
The bail agreement gets pretty specific about this. It states Trump shall “make no direct or indirect threat of any nature” against any codefendant, against any witness, against any victim, or against the community or to any property in the community. These direct/indirect threats include:
…posts on social media or reposts of posts made by another individual on social media.
We all know Trump will almost certainly violate this agreement. We all know he’s got the impulse control of a spoiled five-year-old. We also all know he believes he can violate the agreement and get away with it. He’s already lying about the conditions of his bail, and it hasn’t even been imposed yet. We all know Trump will push it as far as he can. If he gets away with it, he’ll push more. If he doesn’t get away with it, he’ll claim he’s a victim of persecution.
Which brings me back to my original question. What happens when this arrogant, mendacious, belligerent, reckless sonofabitch violates his bail? And yeah, it’s a question of when, not if. Will he get a warning? How many warnings will he get (because we all know he’ll ignore any warning)? Will he be put under house arrest? Will his access to social media be curtailed? If so, will the same social media restrictions be placed on his lawyers? Or will his lawyers be able to post what Trump wants them to say on social media? Will Trump get his ass tossed in jail to await trial?
I have to admit, I don’t have a fucking clue what’s going to happen. I know what would happen to anybody else in that situation. But Trump has proven time after time that he’s NOT anybody else. And, to be fair (I fucking HATE being fair to Trump), he’s right. He’s NOT just anybody. He’s a former President of the United States. AND he’s a candidate for that office again.
The judge, Tanya Chutkan, has said, “[T]he existence of a political campaign is not going to have any bearing on my decision other than, you know, any other lawyer coming before me saying that my client needs to be able to do his job.” That’s like a shopkeeper in Pompeii saying, “Mount Vesuvius isn’t going to have any bearing on my decision to open up my vegetable market.” It’s nice in theory, but in practice…? Well. we’ll see.
Judge Chutkan will formally set bail on Thursday. We should know by mid-day Monday how she’ll respond to Trump violating the agreement. Whatever takes place, we can be sure it’ll make everything worse. That’s what happens when you travel down Trump Road.
gregfallis.com 