We’re going to have a history-making election in eleven days. Here’s what I think will happen. Wait…two things. First, let me admit I’ve been wildly wrong before, especially in 2016 when I was absolutely confident Hillary Clinton would win big. Second, this post will be ever so much better if you read it using the voice of Maria Ouspenskaya. Okay, right, here’s what I think will happen:
Harris wins, carried primarily by women who are mobilized by Dobbs. At least ONE of the seven swing states will be a landslide Harris victory. If she wins North Carolina early, that’s it–game over.
Trump will obviously claim victory, will claim fraud, will challenge everything in court, and will lose almost every case–just like last time.
There won’t be any serious Congressional fuckery during the Electoral ballot count.
Jack Smith’s cases against Trump will pick up speed.
Trump will visit a nation in the Middle East (probably the United Arab Emirates, possibly Saudi Arabia–neither of which have extradition treaties with the US) to negotiate a golf course or hotel…and will stay ‘temporarily’.
“Even a man who is pure in heart and says his prayers by night may become a wolf when the wolfbane blooms and Autumn moon is bright.”
That’s it. Those are my predictions. While Donald Trump has–and will apparently always have–passionate supporters, I think most folks are just sick to fucking death of the guy. I think they’ve had enough of his bullshit and chaos. I think even folks who may not have voted for Harris will be relieved if/when Trump finally leaves the stage.
I may be wrong, of course. But I can hear the voice of Maleva talking to Larry Talbot, “as the rain enters the soil, the river enters the sea, so tears run to a predestined end.”
We’re two weeks out from election day and there’s a whole lot of OMG OMG Trump’s gonna try to steal the election if he loses OMG WTF do we do now?! floating around in social media. And it’s making some folks downright frantic.
Yeah, Trump is absolutely going to try to steal the election when he loses. That’s just a fact. We all know it. We saw him try to do it four years ago. Of course, he’s going to try it again. This time he’s better prepared for it. This time he knows what he did wrong last time. (Okay, that’s not entirely true; Trump is just a bone-ignorant as he was last time, but now he’s got a cadre of feral GOP fascists who are far more skilled at ratfucking.) This time the stakes are higher…both for the nation and for Trump his ownself. He loses, and he’s looking at prison.
So yeah, it’s understandable that folks are worried. EXCEPT for this: the Dems are also better prepared than last time. We’ve had four years to put as many safeguards in place as possible. We’ve had four years to anticipate Trump’s moves. Things look better for us than they did four years ago. For example:
We’ve changed the Electoral Count Act to make it far more difficult for state legislatures to reverse the results of an election.
We have hundreds of lawyers, lawyers in every state, ready to counter the GOP’s attempts to ratfuck the votes, and they’ve got dozens of briefs already written and ready to file, tailored to each state.
The governors of five of the seven so-called ‘swing’ states are Democrats. The two GOP-led states includes Georgia, where Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger both resisted Trump’s efforts four years ago.
Of the 60+ lawsuits brought by Trump four years ago, all but one was shot down. Many of the judges in those cases were Republicans, some appointed by Trump his ownself. They’re no more likely to agree with him this time.
Four years ago Trump had the Department of Justice and the Attorney General in his pocket to help him. Now, the DOJ and the AG are more independent.
This isn’t to say that your anxiety isn’t warranted. It’s not to say there’s nothing to fret about. Trump, his Nazgûl lawyers, and his angry supporters are willing to use any corrupt means that might give them a chance to obtain power, including violence. We HAVE to be concerned and vigilant.
I mean, c’mon, look at the amount of badly-applied makeup this guy’s wearing.
But remember, Trump failed last time. He’ll almost certainly fail again. Failure is Trump’s true brand. Trump is all make-up and weird hair. His strength is mostly an illusion. So yeah, there’s reason to fret. It’s right and proper to fret about the election.
Fret enough to get out to vote. Fret enough to encourage your friends and fam to vote. Fret enough to put up a yard sign or cough up some coin to donate to your local candidates. Ain’t nothing wrong with fretting about this election.
Shit’s getting way beyond weird now. We’re moving into deeply scary fascist lunacy. Yesterday Trump posted this:
I will invoke the Alien Enemies Act of 1798 to target and dismantle every migrant criminal network operating on American soil.
Okay, we can be confident Trump himself is completely ignorant of the Alien Enemies Act of 1798. But some of his Nazgûl advisors are as clever as they are hateful, and they’ve latched onto an ugly 226-year-old chunk of legislation. The Act in question was one of a set of four laws dealing with immigration and speech enacted in response to an undeclared war with the French First Republic (after the fledgling United States decided to stiff France for loans they’d accepted during the American Revolution).
Three of those laws–the Naturalization Act (dealing with the requirements for citizenship), the Alien Friends Act (allowing the imprisonment and deportation of non-citizens), and the Sedition Act (criminalizing false and malicious statements about the government)–are no longer in effect. They were either repealed or allowed to lapse. But the Alien Enemies Act is still, weirdly, in effect. It’s now Chapter 3 under Title 50 of the U.S. Code. It states:
[A]ll natives, citizens, denizens, or subjects of the hostile nation or government, being of the age of fourteen years and upward, who shall be within the United States and not actually naturalized, shall be liable to be apprehended, restrained, secured, and removed as alien enemies.
It was used against the French in that undeclared war in 1798, against the British in the War of 1812, and against Japanese-Americans after the attack on Pearl Harbor at the beginning of World War 2 (and to a much lesser extent, against Germans and Italians after the US entered the war). Don’t ever forget that 82 years ago the US forcibly rounded up approximately 120,000 men, women, and children of Japanese descent, and detained them without trial for around three years.
This hateful fuck will try to end representative democracy in the US.
Could it happen again? Yep. If Trump should win/steal the election and invoke the Alien Enemies Act, it absolutely could happen again. Obviously, the act would be appealed to SCOTUS. Although none of the Acts of 1798 were subjected to judicial review (Marbury v. Madison, which confirmed the concept of judicial review, wasn’t decided until 1803), the few SCOTUS references to the Alien and Sedition Acts have suggested the Court would consider them unconstitutional. But that was before the current Trump Court, which is so far up Trump’s ass that they granted him wide immunity for ‘official’ actions. It’s very possible this Court would allow it.
Remember this: the Act refers to people “not actually naturalized.” To be eligible to begin the naturalization process, you have to have been a permanent resident in the US for at least five years (three years if you are married to a U.S. citizen). Once the process has begun, it still takes around another six months or so to become a citizen. That means people who’ve been living legally in the US for five and a half years could still be detained, confined without trial, and deported by Trump.
This is fucking terrifying on so many levels. Trump back in power, with a cooperative SCOTUS and aides who are dedicated fascists, will do unimaginable damage, not just to the US and representative democracy, but to the entire world.
Trump: Women, I am your protector. Women: You’re what? Trump: You will no longer be abandoned, lonely, or scared. Women: Okay, dude, you’re creeping the fuck out of us right now. Trump: You will no longer be in danger. Women: Oh shit, we are deffo in danger now. Trump: Your groceries will be more affordable. Women: [looking at each other] The fuck? Trump: You will be able to turn on your faucet and have water come out. Women: [looking at each other] Yeah, I don’t know. I’ve got segue whiplash. Trump: You will no longer have to be depressed or unhappy. Women: While you’re talking, there isn’t enough Xanax in the world. Trump: You will no longer have to think about abortion. Women: Uh, yeah, I’m pretty sure we will. Trump: You will no longer have to worry about strangers eating your cats. Women: Jesus suffering fuck, this guy. Trump: I will protect women at a level they have never seen before. Women: Fuck you in the neck, we can protect ourselves. Trump: Nobody protects women more than me. Women: We’re calling E. Jean Carroll right now. Trump: Women will be happy. Women: [Picking up stones] Feeling happier already.
EDITORIAL NOTE: We must burn the patriarchy. Burn it to the ground. Burn it, gather the ashes, piss on them, douse them in kerosene, set them on fire again. Burn the patriarchy, then drive a stake directly through the ashes where its black heart used to be. Set fire to the stake. Keep burning it, over and over. Burn it for generations. Nuke it from orbit. Then find a good book, some chocolates, and a cozy chair. Maybe with a cat.
That title’s a tad misleading. There was only one actual assassination attempt on Trump’s life. The second incident was basically a security breach, but it’s being described as an assassination attempt. In order to be an assassination attempt, you have to actually attempt the assassination. The Secret Service stopped the guy before an attempt could be made. Which, you know, is what they’re supposed to do.
About that…people (and by ‘people’ I mean Republicans and gutless Democrats) are posturing outrage again, asking “How did the would-be shooter get so close to Trump before being spotted?” He got that close because 1) Trump insists on golfing at his public courses, and 2) golf courses are fucking huge, and 3) unless a golf course is in a secure area (like, say, a military base) it would take a LOT of personnel to secure the entire perimeter. This is why presidents Obama and Bush often golfed on military bases. They weren’t greedy narcissists like Trump, who’s happy to charge the Secret Service for green fees that’ll go right into his own pocket.
I don’t know, but I’m assuming the Secret Service was running some sort of rolling security bubble around Trump’s golf cart, securing a couple of holes ahead of him and a couple of holes behind him. Which, really, is enough…or would be enough for an ordinary ex-POTUS. An ex-POTUS who wasn’t an active, volatile threat to the future of democracy. An ex-POTUS who didn’t thrive on pissing people off.
Let’s face it. A lot of people would like to see Trump dead. A lot of people responded to the first assassination attempt by saying they were sorry the shooter missed. A lot of people fucking hate Trump.
I want to see him cry.
I’m not one of them. Well, okay, yeah, I hate the guy. But I don’t want to see him dead killed by an assassin. I don’t want him made into some sort of MAGA martyr. That could lead to something really really ugly. And, frankly, a quick death is too good for Trump. I want him to suffer.
I want to see him tried by a jury of ordinary citizens and, it’s to be hoped, convicted of his crimes. I want to see him incarcerated. Or at least—at the very least—facing some sort of carceral punishment, even if it’s something like 20 years under house arrest. I want to see him bankrupt. I want to see his assets seized to given to E. Jean Carroll. I want Trump broke and humiliated and reviled. I want his wife and family broke, humiliated, reviled. I want him to be internationally scorned; I want global headlines calling him a convict. I want Trump alive and painfully aware that he’ll be one of the most despised characters in American history. I want him cognizant that the name Trump will be mocked and scorned for decades.
I want the motherfucker to suffer. I’m somewhat ashamed of that, but there it is.
I’m really beginning to believe that a line has been crossed. I’m talking about the line between neurosis and psychosis. I’m talking about Donald Trump.
A week ago, on August 30th, Trump sat down for a chat with Tiffany Justice of ‘Moms for Liberty’ (which, seriously? Is there a ‘Moms Adamantly Opposed to Liberty’ group somewhere?). The issue of trans rights came up and Trump said something completely batshit deranged.
“The transgender thing is incredible. Think of it. Your kid goes to school and comes home a few days later with an operation. The school decides what’s gonna happen with your child. And you know, many of these childs [sic] 15 years later say, ‘What the hell happened? Who did this to me?’ They say, ‘Who did this to me?’”
That’s…well, as I said, completely batshit deranged. And as much as I complain about the news media ‘sanewashing’ the batshit deranged stuff Trump says, I have to admit that I did the same thing. I laughed with others about it, and basically dismissed it as Trump being a fucking bonehead again, exaggerating wildly for effect. Because, c’mon, ain’t nobody gonna to believe a kid goes to school and comes home days later (I guess the kid’s parents were busy and didn’t notice he was gone for a few days) with an entirely different set of gender tackle.
But then yesterday Trump held a rally in Mosinee, Wisconsin. And guess what? He basically repeated that same completely batshit deranged story. He said,
“Can you imagine you’re a parent and your son leaves the house and you say, ‘Jimmy, I love you so much, go have a good day at school,’ and your son comes back with a brutal operation. Can you even imagine this?”
No. No, I can’t imagine it. In fact, I can’t even imagine any rational person saying it. I especially can’t imagine a fucking candidate for POTUS saying it. And I double especially can’t imagine a fucking candidate for POTUS believing it. But I’m actually beginning to wonder if Trump does, in fact, believe something like that is happening. I mean, if you say something completely batshit deranged once and it gets reported as being completely batshit deranged, a person who is NOT completely batshit deranged would know NOT to repeat it.
Completely batshit deranged?
But here we are. And all of a sudden, I’m hearing the lyrics to Psycho Killer in my head.
You start a conversation, you can’t even finish it You’re talking a lot, but you’re not saying anything When I have nothing to say, my lips are sealed Say something once, why say it again? Psycho Killer Qu’est-ce que c’est?
Seriously, qu’est-ce que fucking c’est? It’s delusional, is what it is. And that brings me right back to that line I said may have been crossed in the opening paragraph. Back in January of 2021, in an article about Trump for Psychology Today, Dr. Stephen Diamond wrote this:
Once a person, including a leader, has crossed over the line from neurosis to psychosis, for, by definition, a delusion is a psychotic rather than neurotic symptom, that person has now become debilitated or disabled by a severe mental disorder, and may no longer be able to continue to perform or discharge their job responsibilities safely, efficiently and effectively. Their reality testing–which is different than neurocognitive functioning per se–has been significantly impaired.
Bingo. By repeating that completely batshit deranged story, I have to question if Trump’s reality testing has gone down the porcelain facility. It’s pretty widely accepted that he’s had a severe personality disorder for decades. But has he crossed that line? Is he actually delusional?
A couple of days ago there was a headline in the Philadelphia Enquirer stating “About 3% of Pennsylvania voters are still undecided.” As of October 23 of this year, there are 8,646,572 registered voters in Pennsylvania. That’s 3,897,179 Democrats, 3,451,289 Republicans, and 1,298,104 independent and third party voters. Three percent would be 259,397 undecided voters. A quarter of a million Pennsylvanian claim they just can’t make up their minds. “Harris or Trump…man, I just don’t know.”
I’m inclined to think the headline should have read ‘About 3% of Pennsylvania voters are either lying sacks of shit OR completely fuckwitted chumps.’ The liars, of course, are Trump supporters who don’t want to acknowledge out loud that they’re racist, misogynistic assholes. And really, I don’t blame them. The completely fuckwitted chumps are just that—chumps who are completely fuckwitted.
(Okay, short etymological tangent. The origin of chump is uncertain, but it’s thought to probably be a mash-up of stump, chunk, and lump—all of which at some point referenced a short, thick piece of wood in Old English, Danish, and Middle High German. In other words, a blockhead.)
There has never, in the entire long, ugly, weird history of these United States, been a more vividly clear difference between two presidential candidates. Never. About the only thing they have in common is they both walk upright on two feet (although Trump’s posture calls that into question). Comparing Harris and Trump is like comparing apples and maybe some sort of foot fungus. I could make a list (an incredibly long list) of the differences between them, but unless you’re on the Editorial Board of the Washington Post, you already know most of those differences. And unlike WaPo’s Editorial Board, you know why they’re important.
My point, if you can call it that, is that it seems highly improbable that 3% of the voters in Pennsylvania are truly undecided. The reality is you’ve got some Trump supporters who are either afraid of confessing their support or who’d like to get a little bit of attention, so are lying about their position. And you’ve got some people who simply don’t care about anything outside of their own personal interests and who probably can’t be bothered to vote anyway.
This election won’t turn on convincing ‘undecided’ voters to become ‘decided’ voters. It’ll turn on 1) getting people to the polls and 2) making sure the people in charge of counting the votes and certifying the results do their job. Trump can’t win the popular vote. He probably can’t win the electoral vote. But he’s put a LOT of money and effort into ratfucking the certification process.
I’m confident Harris will win the election. I’m not as confident she’ll become president.
I confess, I’m a wee bit disappointed. I mean, yeah, I’m glad Trump’s idiotic but hypnotic control of the MAGAverse is waning. But I really thought this might happen. I’m talking about the potential for an Ellen Jamesian moment.
Now some (okay, probably most) of you right now are wondering, “Greg, old sock, who is this Ellen James of which you speak and what would that moment entail?” I’m going to tell you. Back in 1978 novelist John Irving published a novel called The World According to Garp. It won the National Book Award for Fiction the following year. Garp was the first novel I’d ever read that explicitly examined toxic masculinity, and the first novel I’d read that featured a trans character in a positive way. It also looked at ideological extremism and cults of personality. One critical element of the narrative revolves around a group of women who cut off their own tongues in solidarity with an eleven-year-old sexual assault survivor (Ellen James) whose tongue was cut out by her rapists to silence her.
When I first saw a Trump supporter wearing a sweatshirt with a ‘Diapers over Dems’ logo and other supporters wearing adult diapers with the logo ‘Real Men Wear Diapers’ I thought his cult of personality might have hit a high water mark. Then came the assassination attempt. Trump’s ear got pinked, possibly by a bullet fragment. It doesn’t matter what pinked his ear; it got pinked. It bled. He had to wear a bandage for a few days. And some of his supporters adopted the bandage. People actually put bandages on their ears. It looked ridiculous, but that never stopped them before.
I felt all the elements of an Ellen Jamesian moment began to coalesce. I actually thought there was a chance–not a great chance, but a chance–members of the MAGAverse would pink their own ears. But no. The cowards stopped with the bandage. Sure, there was at least one guy who got a tattoo of Trump surrounded by Secret Service personnel with his tiny fist raised and an angry look on his face. But that was about it.
Bloodless fake crucifixion
I truly believe that if the assassination attempt had happened a year ago, we’d have seen some MAGA fuckwits piercing their own ears. A year ago, a bleeding ear would have been seen as Trump stigmata. Maybe the most dedicated Trumpists died of Covid, maybe his people are just weary of having to support every idiotic thing that rancid motherfucker utters, maybe JD Vance has hollowed out some of his support, but a year ago Trump’s bloody shirt would be enshrined at Mar-a-Lago. A year ago Trump would be selling cheap-ass Chinese-made white shirts with symbolic blood on the collar. It seems clear (to me, at least) that Trump doesn’t command quite the same passion that he did a year ago.
And yes, that’s a good thing. A very good thing. But I did sorta kinda want to see Trumpists tearing out a chunk of their own ears.
gregfallis.com 