this is bullshit

It’s no secret that I’ve become disenchanted with the Sanders campaign — and to some extent with Bernie himself. A few folks have pointed out that since the beginning of his campaign I’ve been harder on Bernie than I have on Hillary. And it’s absolutely true — I have been. That’s because I expected more of Bernie than I did of Hillary. In fact, I still expect more of Bernie than I do of Hillary. I expect Hillary and her campaign to engage in traditional politics; I expected Bernie and his campaign to move beyond that.

Let me also say I’m not entirely opposed to traditional politics. When practiced with integrity, politics is about getting stuff done. It’s about finding the seam between what’s ideal and what’s possible. But when practiced with cynicism or ego — and way too often these days, that’s the default toggle — politics becomes about tearing down the people with whom you disagree.

Which brings me to this. Over the last few days, I’ve seen this posted five times by five different people. All of them are people I like. They’re all people I firmly believe have integrity. They’re people who would never deliberately spread a lie. And yet there’s this:

bernie hillary social security

I don’t know anything about Ron Gavalik. But I do know this is bullshit. I don’t say that because I’ve become a convert of Hillary Clinton. I haven’t — though I accept she’s going to be the Democratic nominee and I’ll work to get her elected. I say this is bullshit because I took the time to look into it. I looked into it because this made no sense to me. I may not be an avid Hillary supporter, but she’s always been sound on the issue of Social Security. I had to wonder if she’d somehow changed her position.

She hasn’t.

Here’s how this sort of pernicious bullshit gets spread. It started back before the New Hampshire primary, when Bernie made a categorical statement that he’d never accept any sort of cut to Social Security. Daniel Marans, a reporter for The Huffington Post, asked the Clinton campaign if they were also willing to make “a red-line pledge not to cut [social security] benefits.” According to the article Marans published, the aide pointed Marans to the Clinton campaign website, in which Hillary is quoted as saying “I won’t cut Social Security. … I’ll defend it, and I’ll expand it.” The aide then told Marans the following:

“She has no plans to cut benefits and, in fact, has a plan to expand them.”

That seems pretty clear, right? But wait — no plan to cut Social Security doesn’t mean she won’t consider it at some point in the future. Could that mean she’s ‘open’ to the idea? Marans then interviewed Nancy Altman, who has a lot of experience in issues involving Social Security (and who, by the way, also does reporting for The Huffington Post). Ms. Altman stated Clinton’s policy statements:

“do not definitively promise not to cut the program.”

That’s technically accurate, though radically misleading. On her campaign website Clinton lays out her plan to extend Social Security benefits and very clearly states “I won’t cut Social Security” but she doesn’t say “I definitely promise not to cut the program, honest, cross my heart, I’m not making this up, pinkie swear”.

Marans also interviewed Stephanie Taylor, the co-founder of the Progressive Campaign Change Committee. When asked for a response to Clinton’s aide’s comment that Hillary doesn’t plan to cut benefits, Ms. Taylor said:

“George W. Bush had no plan to invade Iraq.”

Since George W. Bush DID, in fact, invade Iraq, clearly Hillary Clinton will almost certainly cut Soci…you know, that notion just too stupid for me to even finish writing it.

Let’s review all that. A reporter for The Huffington Post interviewed a Clinton campaign staffer who stated Hillary had no plans to cut Social Security but DID have plans to expand the program. He then interviewed another reporter for The Huffington Post who read the Clinton campaign’s position on Social Security and decided it didn’t include a definite promise not to cut Social Security. Finally, he interviewed a third person who noted that George W. Bush invaded Iraq.

Got that? That bit of rank speculation was then reported at CommonDreams.org under the following headline:

Hillary Clinton Refuses to Rule Out Any and All Benefit Cuts to Social Security

And that leads us directly back to Ron Gavalik’s bullshit claim that Hillary Clinton is ‘open’ to the idea of cutting Social Security benefits for poor folks.

There are valid reasons to prefer Bernie Sanders over Hillary Clinton. Lots of valid reasons, in fact, which is why I supported Bernie early in the campaign. There’s simply no need to make shit up and smear it all over the Intertubes.

This is exactly the sort of ugly politics Bernie opposed at the beginning of his campaign. It’s bullshit like this — and the willingness of so many Bernie supporters to fabricate bullshit like this — that led me to end my support for Bernie’s campaign. It’s bullshit like this — and the willingness of so many Bernie supporters to believe anything if it suggests Hillary is evil and corrupt — that disappoints me more than any of the ugly attacks spread by the Republicans.

You don’t have to lie about Hillary to support Bernie. You don’t have to resort to this sort of bullshit.

 

not worried about trump

I ain’t worried about no Trump.

He’s not going to be president. He’s just not. There’s no way. Let me say that again. There is absolutely no fucking way Donald J. Trump is going to become the President of These United States. I’m completely confident in saying that.

Well, I mean, I suppose it’s possible. It’s also possible that the supervolcano under Yellowstone National Park could erupt again later this week. After all, it’s been 650,000 years since its last eruption. So it’s within the realm of possibility. But is either of these massively calamitous events anywhere near likely to happen? Nope.

trump on stage

Here’s the thing: first off, Trump’s got no ground game. Sure, the guy’s pretty good at holding big rallies. Rallies are great visuals. All that spectacle — excited people waving signs and calling out the candidate’s name. That looks impressive on television and in news photos. But rallies don’t get voters to the polling stations on election day. You want to win an election, you’ve got to get voters to places where they can actually vote. You need a political infrastructure designed to both encourage voters and to shift their bodies from the sofa to the voting booth. Infrastructure is NOT flashy or exciting, so Trump and his crew of political remora haven’t devoted much time or effort to putting that infrastructure together.

Second, Trump hasn’t been tested against a Democratic candidate. He’s been ‘debating’ against dumplings who couldn’t really attack him because they mostly agree with him. And when they didn’t agree with him, they were afraid to alienate the Republican base (I almost said  the ‘lunatic fringe’, but now that IS the Republican base).

I mean, look — in the Republican debates Trump could rise up on his hind legs and say astonishingly stupid things like “We’re not winning. America doesn’t win anymore. We don’t win. We’re just not winning.” and his opponents couldn’t say “What the fuck are you talking about — winning what?” They couldn’t say something like “Well, sure we’re winning, of course we’re winning” because that would be seen as supporting President Hussein Bams of Muslim, Kenya. If you look at the order of the fuckwits who dropped out of the Republican race, you’ll see that the most rational candidates dropped out soonest. The Republican primary was never a contest to determine who was the best person to govern These United States. It was always a contest to see who was the biggest asshole.

U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump greets supporters after a campaign event in Bentonville Regional Airport near Bentonville

Which is why Trump’s biggest competition came from Ted Fuckin’ Cruz, the man whose own political party would vote him Most Likely To Be Left To Starve On An Ice Floe. Ted Fuckin’ Cruz is so actively disliked that if a plane carrying Republicans crashed in the Andes, they’d starve before they’d eat him. I don’t think anybody actually believed Ted Fuckin’ Cruz was the Zodiac Killer, but a lot of people wanted him to be. And that’s the guy Trump had to beat in the primaries. You put Trump on a debate stage with any Democrat not currently in a coma and Trump will explode like a popcorn fart. All it’ll take is somebody using a calm voice and saying “Well, no, building a wall along the border with Mexico is just a silly idea.”

But even if Trump had a ground game, and even if Trump was a competent conservative debater, he still couldn’t win the coming election. The math is against him — and math is a merciless sumbitch. Only about 23% of the electorate (those folks who are eligible to vote) are registered as Republicans. Democrats do a bit better (32% of the electorate) but the biggest voting bloc in the U.S. right now are Independents and unaffiliated voters (at 39% of the electorate). The remaining 6% are registered as Libertarians or Green Party or one of the whackadoodle political fringe groups.

So even if every registered Republican shows up at the pools and votes for Trump and if fully half of the unaffiliated and Independent voters experience a psychotic fugue state in the voting booth and go for Trump, that’s still only 42% of the electorate. That’s the most optimistic outcome for Trump.

The fact is, a lot of Republicans aren’t willing to vote for Trump. That’s especially true for women. Depending on which poll you look at, anywhere from 35-45% of women registered as Republicans have said they definitely won’t vote for Trump. Nor can Trump rely on many of those unaffiliated/Independent voters. Almost half of younger voters — those 18 to 35 — are unaffiliated/Independent voters. The same is true of Latino voters; nearly half are registered as unaffiliated/Independent.

trump violence

Trump’s not getting the women’s vote, he’s not getting the Latino vote, he’s not getting the vote of any minority group. Trump’s wheelhouse is mostly filled with angry/scared white guys. It sure seems like there’s a lot of them these days; they make a lot of noise and we see them on television all the goddamn time — but happily there’s just not enough of them to carry an election.

Trump’s not a serious candidate. The political party he represents is no longer a serious political party. He’s fucked — and with any luck, he’s fucked the entire Republican party. Trump’s defeat may force them to get serious again.

The only way Democrats can lose is by dividing the party and not showing up to vote. Which, now that I say it, is possible.

In other news, back in March of this year locals reported an area of the Shoshone River near Yellowstone National Park was boiling. That boiling has stopped. For the moment.

 

i want my bernie back

Well, I’m done with Bernie. Don’t misunderstand me. Bernie Sanders’s politics still align more closely with mine. I still think he’d have been a good president. I’m just done supporting him.

Not because of that fracas in Nevada. And that’s all it was, a fracas — a lot of bustle and fuss and loud noises. It was the result of anger and passion, and I’m of the opinion that anger and passion have a place in politics. I think it was stupid, but I don’t have any real problem with that.

And it’s not because Bernie doesn’t really have a realistic path to the nomination. That’s just math and unbending reality. I don’t think Bernie should stop his campaign and start supporting Hillary — at least not yet. I think he needs to show up in Philadelphia with as many pledged delegates as he can get, so he can help shape the official Democratic platform.

And I’m not withdrawing my support for Bernie because of what I see as the emerging hypocrisy of some of his positions. And yes, I mean hypocrisy. Early in his campaign he decried the idea of superdelegates, saying the DNC used them to overturn the will of the people. I rather agreed with him. But now that he needs them, Bernie seems to think it’s fine for superdelegates to overturn the will of the people. His argument is that polls show him doing better against Trump, so for the good of the Democratic party superdelegates should support him rather than Hillary, even though she’s won more pledged delegates and has won more votes. And about those polls — throughout this campaign Bernie has dismissed the importance of polling data. And he’s been right to do so. If we listened to the polls, Bernie would already be back home in Vermont. Yet now he’s using polling numbers to bolster his argument that superdelegates should abandon Hillary and support him. That’s hypocrisy. It’s also unrealistic to think he can disparage the Democratic party elite as part of his stump speech, and then expect them to support him (because that’s exactly what the superdelegates are — the party elite).

But even that isn’t what’s caused me to change my mind about supporting Bernie. A certain amount of hypocrisy is hard-wired into the political process. Politics is grounded in compromise, and that sometimes means you have to support a position you don’t fully agree with. Bernie has spent his entire life in public service; he’s had to do that before. Not as often as some, but he’s done it. And I don’t find fault with him for that.

I want my Bernie back

I want my Bernie back.

No, the reason I’m no longer supporting Bernie is because of an emerging pattern of whiny self-righteousness and martyrdom that I find offensive. It bothered me early on, when Bernie’s flacks dismissed Hillary’s victories in the South as somehow illegitimate, because the Southern states were Red states. It bothered me that he did that while championing his own victories in caucus states, which are the least democratic way of nominating a candidate.

I’m tired of hearing Bernie supporters who can’t be bothered to learn the requirements for voting in their primaries, then claim their votes are being suppressed. I’m tired of hearing Bernie’s campaign claim that every primary or caucus they lose has somehow been rigged, but every state he’s won is a legitimate victory. I’m tired of the histrionics, the claim that if Bernie doesn’t win then democracy is dead. And I’m really tired of hearing folks say that if Democrats don’t support Bernie, then they deserve Trump.

I still want a US$15 minimum wage. I still want free or affordable college available to everyone. I still want to see the big banks neutered, and the criminal justice system reformed, and universal medical care. I still want all those things I wanted five months ago during the Iowa caucus. I still want that Bernie Sanders.

But I don’t want what Bernie’s campaign has become. I want the old Not me, us Bernie Sanders. I don’t want the new Me, or you deserve to get fucked over Bernie campaign.

trump, the slayer

This may be the year when we finally come face to face with ourselves; finally just lay back and say it — that we are really just a nation of 220 million used car salesmen with all the money we need to buy guns, and no qualms at all about killing anybody else in the world who tries to make us uncomfortable. — Hunter S. Thompson, Fear and Loathing on the Campaign Trail

Well, okay — that’s it then.

Now the Republican party can drop all pretense of being serious about governance. Or diplomacy. Or hell, pick something. The GOP just isn’t a serious political party. They’ve become a frat house for assholes.

They’re pretty ecumenical when it comes to assholes, I’ll give them that. Assholes of all stripes are welcome. Religious assholes (“I’m not perfect, I’m just forgiven!”), economic assholes (“Tax breaks for the rich, fuck the poor!”), militaristic assholes (“Carpet bomb mosques, build more Hobby Lobbys!”), racist assholes (“Hey, somebody has to mow the lawns!”), stupid assholes (“Why can’t we make the Second Amendment the First Amendment?”), sexist assholes (“That was a compliment! What’re you, a lesbian?”), and free range raging assholes of all sorts. If you’re an asshole, Trump wants your vote.

Like I should care what sort of asshole you are? Just vote already.

Like I should care what sort of asshole you are? Just vote already.

Of course they picked Trump. He’s the distillation of the Republican party. There’s nothing surprising about it. Nothing strange about it. It’s not weird; it’s wyrd.

Okay, today’s etymology lesson. The modern term weird is derived from the Anglo-Saxon wyrd, which means something like destiny or fate — but more complex. Wyrd doesn’t refer to something preordained, something that is meant happen. It’s more a constantly evolving and shifting nexus of individual choices and decisions melded with the necessities of the universe. The wyrd brings various elements together, then riffs on whatever crazy-ass stuff happens next. It’s a sort of Viking jazz improv version of fate or destiny.

It’s like this: fate didn’t bring Buffy Summers to Sunnydale, home of the Hellmouth. It was the wyrd. There was a pool of potential Vampire Slayers out there in the world, and the universe needed a Vampire Slayer parked at the Hellmouth. The universe didn’t care who the Vampire Slayer was, or what supernatural lottery ticket had to be cashed in to become the Slayer. The universe didn’t care what actions and decisions (like, say, burning down a high school in Los Angeles) would bring the Slayer to Sunnydale. A Slayer was needed in Sunnydale; the wyrd got one there. It happened to be Buffy.

Wait, what? They're nominating who?

Wait, what? They’re nominating who?

Donald Trump wasn’t preordained to destroy the Republican party, and the Republican party wasn’t preordained to be destroyed. But the wyrd is at work. In a couple of months the GOP national convention will meet in Cleveland (city of light, city of magic — as Randy Newman says) and not even the wyrd knows what will happen. Maybe Trump will be given the nomination, maybe establishment Republicans will somehow nominate some other poor bastard, maybe the sun will turn black and Trump will transform into a giant snake who will be killed with a mystical knife wielded by Elizabeth Warren. Who knows?

Regardless, it looks like the GOP — the frat house of assholes — is about to die. Not even the wyrd can say what will happen. But we know where and we know when, and I know I’ll be watching. Because, to paraphrase Hunter Thompson, when the going gets weird, the wyrd turns pro.

Burn on, big river, burn on.

 

bernie deserves better

I have SO MANY friends — fellow Bernie supporters — telling me the New York primary was stolen. No, wait — STOLEN!!!. There, that’s it. The primary was STOLEN!!! because it was a closed primary, and registered Independents couldn’t vote in it, and nobody told them they had to switch their registration six months before the primary, and it’s Hillary’s fault because she’s the Establishment Candidate ™, and the New York Democratic Party set the rules to help Establishment Candidate ™, and it’s just not fair to Bernie, and so democracy is dead!

New York primary

New York primary

I declare, I’m increasingly embarrassed by my fellow Bernie supporters. They’re right that the New York Democratic primary rules are fucked up and need to be changed, but in order to change them — well, it requires a bit of work. First, you have to be a Democrat. This is pretty basic. Registered Independents or Republicans don’t have much say in how Democrats set up their primaries or caucuses. Second, after you register as a Democrat, you have to attend a lot of meetings and listen to a lot of arguments. That takes time and a certain amount of commitment.

It’s important for Bernie supporters to understand the current rules for the NY primary were established about a century ago, when things moved more slowly and there were more political parties and ‘party-crashing’ was more common and sometimes included actual violence. The rules weren’t implemented just to obstruct Bernie.

Just as important, Bernie supporters need to understand that Bernie has benefited from closed events. Most of Bernie’s victories have been in caucus states, and caucuses are always closed. Always. Registered Democrats only, thank you very much. Registered Independents and Republicans, sorry guys — you’re just not welcome. Colorado, Kansas, Wyoming, Nebraska, Washington, Maine, Alaska, Hawaii — all Bernie victories, and all closed caucuses.

And hey,let’s face it, caucuses are the least democratic way to select a candidate. Primaries are much more fair and representative. Caucuses actually discourage voters, because they’re so time-consuming. You’re a nurse working second shift at the hospital? Sorry, caucuses are generally held in the evening, so you don’t get to vote. You have a couple of young kids and can’t afford a baby-sitter? Sorry, unless you want to deal with young kids who are forced to sit in a crowded room for two to three hours with no distraction, you don’t get to vote.

It’s disingenuous for Bernie supporters to complain about New York’s closed primary when so much of his momentum has come from closed events. It sounds like whining. It IS whining.

bernie yet again

While we’re at it, let’s look at those open primaries — the ones where Independents (and lawdy, even Republicans) could vote. The fact is, Hillary has won more of those primaries than Bernie. Yes, most of them were in the South — and a lot of Bernie supporters dismiss them for that reason. As if Southern Democrats aren’t real Democrats. As if winning in a poor, under-educated, racially diverse state is somehow not as worthy as winning in a more economically sound, whiter, better educated state. As if Hillary’s victory in, say, conservative Mississippi is less valid than Bernie’s victory in conservative Kansas.

And that’s why — as a Bernie supporter, as somebody who caucused for Bernie in the first (closed) caucus, where Bernie got his first victory —  I’m writing this. I support Bernie, but I’m just not willing to be hypocritical about it. I won’t complain about closed primary losses while I celebrate closed caucus victories. I won’t whine about registered Independents being unable to influence the choices of a political party they haven’t joined. I won’t attribute Bernie’s losses to conspiracies, and I won’t make excuses for why Bernie isn’t winning.

Here’s the thing: Bernie may not be winning the 2016 nomination, but he might be winning the future of the Democratic party. And that’s just as important — in fact, probably more important — in the long-term.

I say Bernie ‘might’ be winning the future, because my impression is that a lot of his supporters — the ones who are concocting conspiracy theories to explain why he’s not doing better — will abandon politics if Bernie doesn’t get the nomination. And if that happens, then the rules for primaries will stay fucked up for the foreseeable future. Worse, any hope we have to radically change the way politics are handled in the U.S. will fade.

Bernie’s campaign was never about Bernie. It’s always been about change. Change for the better. And there won’t be any change for the better in the future if we lie to ourselves about the present.

 

got to — this america, man

There are two kinds of people. You know this. There are people who’ve seen The Wire and there are those poor, innocent, unfortunate motherfuckers who haven’t. Sometimes it’s impossible to communicate with those folks.

So this morning I get this text from a friend of mine. She’s been living in NYC for some time. Late nineties, something like that. And she’s unhappy and discouraged on account of Bernie got thumped in the New York primary. But she sort of expected that. Doesn’t like it, but she’s not really surprised that Hillary won. She texted me this:

hillarys always had the dem machine behind her

And I replied:

You come at the Queen, you best not miss.

But she didn’t get the reference. Now, I’m not saying Hillary is Omar Little. What I’m saying is she’s been around the block more than a few times and no matter how many times she’s been wounded, she just keeps on coming back. The woman is tough. I’m a Bernie man, but I’m thinking he’s come at Hillary with too little, too late. I’m about half expecting to see Hillary wearing a t-shirt that says The Cheese Stands Alone.

But here’s what’s weird — what really has my friend distressed is Trump. Trump’s success has her surprised. It makes no sense to her. She knows Trump is a dick and completely unqualified, but she just doesn’t understand how Republicans keep voting for him. She sent this text block:

hes not even a republican

not politically.

why do they even let him run

the republicans i mean

And I texted back:

Got to — this America, man

Again, she didn’t get the reference. Let’s face it, texting isn’t what you’d call a nuanced communication medium, even for folks who’re familiar with The Wire. I could have texted:

Trump is Snot Boogie before he got himself shot.

But if she didn’t get the other references, she’d never get that one. The thing is, Snot Boogie wasn’t always Snot Boogie, just like Trump wasn’t always Trump. At some point in his life Omar Isaiah Betts (a totally different Omar, by the way; must have been a popular name in Baltimore) got tagged with the name Snot and so he became Snot. Donald Trump was just another spoiled, arrogant, privileged, stupid-ass rich kid, but at some point in his life he sloughed off his first name and he became Trump. Not a person, a brand.

Snot Boogie shot craps; Trump shot real estate. Two different games. When Snot got greedy and took the money, he’d get chased down and beat up. But “ain’t nobody go past that.” Until they did. Trump, when he’d get chased down, he’d file for bankruptcy. Snot gets his ass kicked; Trump gets to start over.

But here’s the thing. Politics ain’t real estate. The rules are different. More like craps. You got the money, you get to play. The more money you got, the longer you can stay in the game. Trump, he’s still playing real estate craps. He still thinks if he loses, he’ll get to start over. Stupid motherfucker. Most players who run for president, when they lose they end up like Snot Boogie. Dead. Metaphorically and politically dead, most of them. Remember Jon Huntsman? No, I didn’t think so. He was the Governor of Utah, ran for president just four years ago; now he’s Snot Boogied. What about John Edwards? Former senator, did pretty well in the 2008 campaign. Now he’s dead at Mistah Kurtz. Fred Thompson? He was running second in the GOP in 2008. He was dead as bricks, even before he literally died. A few candidates survive, wounded, but hardly any ever come back from losing.

And that brings us back to Snot. What happened to him was inevitable. What’ll happen to Trump — that’s pretty much inevitable too. He’ll probably get the nomination, Trump. If he does, he’ll meet the same metaphorical fate as poor Snot Boogie. After the general election, he’ll be face down on the street. And if he doesn’t get the nomination? He’ll end up face down on the convention floor.

My friend, she doesn’t understand how the Republican Party could let Trump get in the game. He got in the same way Snot got in. You got the coin, you get a chance to roll the dice. What happens after that, who the hell knows. But they got to let you play.

You know this if you’ve seen The Wire. This America, man.

 

us

I understand the passion of the ‘Bernie Or Bust’ crowd. They’re like folks who’ve recently given up smoking or eating meat. They realize this New Way is better than the Old Way. Seriously better — and better for everybody, not just themselves.The New Way is clearly better and they want everybody to know it and embrace it.

Stop wrecking your lungs and the lungs of everybody around you. Stop eating meat and end the unsustainable and cruel practices of industrial meat production. Stop electing politicians who represent the interests of billionaires and corporations instead of the interests of the public. Just stop doing that shit.

BERNIE OR BUST

But here’s the thing the Bernie Or Bust folks need to understand. Bernie can’t break up the big banks. He can’t make college education free. He can’t end income inequality, or reform campaign finance, or extinguish racism. Assuming he’s elected President of These United States (a consummation devoutly to be wished), Bernie can’t do any of that. He’d like to, but he just can’t. Not unless there’s a radical change in Congress — and friends, even if the Republican party continues to shit the bed and Democrats pick up an unexpected number of Congressional seats, it won’t be a radical enough change to allow President Sanders to do what he’d like to do.

Hell, Democrats were in the majority in the Senate when President Obama was elected, and Congress prevented him from closing the prisons in Guantanamo. You think they’re going to let Bernie break up the big banks? No fucking way.

bernie or bust again

So what can Bernie do if/when he’s elected president? He can make a start. Hell, even if he loses the nomination, he’s already made a start by mobilizing so many people. But it’ll be up to us — to the folks who believe in what Bernie believes — to do the grunt work of changing government. And we change government by voting. Not just in presidential primaries and caucuses, and not just in presidential election years, but voting in every goddamn election in every goddamn year. Vote in local elections, vote in state-wide elections, vote in off-year congressional elections, vote and work hard to get good people elected at every level of government.

You ‘Bernie or Bust’ folks tell me you support Bernie Sanders. Great. Then you need to actually support him. and what he believes. Here’s a True Thing: If you seriously make this claim:

bernie or Bust3

then you can’t truly believe in this:

bernie not me us.

Not me — us. It’s not about Bernie as an individual. It’s about what Bernie believes. If you truly want to see Bernie’s vision of These United States come to fruition, then model yourself after Bernie. That man has been busting his ass for half a century to make this country fair and just for ordinary people.

You really want to support Bernie? Then think about what Bernie would actually want you to do. Work hard to get him the nomination. If we fail, then work hard to get Hillary elected. If we fail at that, then keep working and work harder. Work hard to elect people in your hometown, in your county, in your state.

It’s not about Bernie; it’s about us. If you think it’s just about Bernie, then you haven’t been paying attention. If you think it’s just about electing Bernie as a leader, then you haven’t been listening. He’s not just asking for us to follow him; he’s also asking us to shoulder our share of the burden. He’s making promises, but he’s expecting us to help him fulfill them.

Not me — us.

math without mercy

First things first. Let’s just admit that Bernie Sanders got thumped last Tuesday. Well and truly thumped. So yesterday morning I contributed another US$20 to his campaign.

Why? Because I support most of his positions. Because he represents the direction I’d like to see this nation take in the future. Because it’s important to continue to support Bernie’s campaign all the way to the convention. Because that’s how we impress on the Democratic National Committee the simple fact that eventually Democratic voters won’t be satisfied with incremental changes to a system that’s largely broken.

But I’m not donating money in the belief that Bernie can still win the nomination. It’s still mathematically possible for him to win, but it’s highly improbable. I don’t say that because I’ve lost faith in Bernie; I say it because math is an unflinching, heartless, unforgiving bastard. And I’m saying it because I’m seeing a lot of this:

bernie chart

This chart and the one below are accurate for the dates given. But they’re also misleading. Here’s why: they suggest that because Bernie is only a few hundred delegates shy of Hillary, and because there are still a couple thousand delegates left, that all Bernie needs to do to catch her is win a few large states. But that’s just not true.

The Democratic primaries operate on proportional delegate allocation rules. That means the candidates win delegates in proportion to their vote share in a given state’s primary or caucus. So it’s not just a matter of winning a primary; it’s the size of the win that matters. If a candidate wins by a large margin, the winner gets proportionately more delegates than the loser. If a candidate wins a primary in a close race, the winner may only get one or two more delegates than the loser.

bernie pie chart

Take Bernie’s big win in Michigan — and make no mistake, it was a big win for Bernie. But more in terms of emotion and enthusiasm than in terms of delegates. Because it was a fairly narrow win, Bernie only earned seven more delegates than Hillary.

Another example: next Tuesday is the Arizona primary. Arizona will allocate 85 delegates. Let’s say Bernie wins the primary with 60% of the vote. That means he’ll gain 60% of the 85 delegates. That’s 51 delegates. But Hillary will win 34. That’s only a difference of 17 delegates. Using the chart above, Bernie would then have 869 delegates; Hillary would have 1166. That’s still a sizable lead.

What this means in practice is this: in order for Bernie to catch or surpass Hillary in the delegate count, he not only has to win primaries, but he has to win them in a big way. He has to win by a large enough margin to gain significantly more delegates than she gets. In order to gain the nomination, Bernie will have to win almost every single remaining primary by nearly a 60-40 margin. Those are landslide margins.

Is that possible? Yes, it is. Is it very likely? Sadly, no.

When the news media refers to Hillary as the presumptive nominee, they’re not lying; they’re just looking at the math. And math has no mercy.

That said, I’m still supporting Bernie. I’m still giving him money. I’m still telling people to vote for him and caucus for him. Because the effort itself has value. Because even if Bernie doesn’t win the nomination I want him to show up with a large number of delegates, because he can help shape the party platform. I’m still supporting Bernie because this nation needs his movement and the passion he’s inspired. We need it to shape the 2018 Congressional elections.

bernie not me us

There is — or should be — more to this movement than Bernie Sanders. If we seriously want the profound systemic change he offers, then we can’t stop working until that change takes place. We can’t quit. Even if the math is against us.