this isn’t a war of choice; it’s a war of impulse

I read an article recently that referred to “Trump’s hastily planned war.” Hastily planned? This is a war plan drawn on the back of a bar napkin. To describe this as a half-assed war plan would be complimentary. I’ve also seen this war described as “a war of choice.” That’s wrong too. It’s war of impulse–a war that began because of Trump’s urge to do something without giving any thought to the consequences. He’s not conducting a war; he’s winging it.

And it’s entirely pointless. Even if we knew what Trump thought he might accomplish by starting this unprovoked war, it wouldn’t matter…because there’s nothing meaningful that can come out of it. Regime change? Not gonna happen, really. We’re talking about a hard-line extreme Islamic leadership backed up by 125,000 devout and devoted members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, backed up by another 50-90 thousand paramilitary Basij volunteers. The US and/or Israel can kill a whole lot of religious leaders with bombs and missiles, but you can’t kill an army that way. Hell, neither Russia nor the US could destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan, and they’re a ragtag military group. Very dedicated, but not militarily sophisticated.

Another reason Trump has given for starting this unprovoked war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Which they were incapable of doing. They weren’t capable of doing it even before Trump’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities nine months ago; US intelligence estimates back then suggested it would be around a decade before Iran could develop a nuclear weapon and a means to deliver it to the US homeland. Maybe Trump can claim this time he really really really obliterated their nuclear program. But hey, they’ll just start up again, with Russia’s help.

Look, Iran has been a low level threat against the US since 1979. The government of Iran is a fucking nightmare, both to its neighboring countries and to its own people. Every US president since then has done something to punish Iran. So yeah, we’ve been in constant conflict with Iran. Our relationship with Iran is a lot like our relationship with North Korea. But here’s the thing: there’s not much we can do to make Iran (or North Korea, for that matter) a better place.

Smarter presidents than Trump looked at Iran and tried to moderate their behavior through diplomacy, propaganda, and aid packages. Trump shitcanned international aid, killed off the US propaganda outlets (like Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty), and replaced professional diplomats with venal, greed-headed real estate vultures. Now US international policy is grounded in threats, insults, open corruption, and the occasional punch in the face.

So how does this unprovoked (and yes, I’ll keep repeating the fact that this stupid war was unprovoked) war end? Fuck if I know. If we’re lucky, Trump will just announce that he’s won the war and will withdraw US forces from the region. The world economy will remain fucked up; the US economy will be tanked, but at least we won’t be in a stupid war. Or at least we won’t be in that particular stupid war. Trump is perfect capable of starting another stupid war somewhere else. Like Cuba.

If we’re not lucky? I hate to even think about it.

how stupid is this war?

All wars are stupid, even the rare necessary ones. Some folks say war is never necessary, and while I respect that belief, I disagree with it. I believe there are a few valid reasons for a nation…any nation…to go to war. All of those reasons are responsive–taken in response to some specific act. Military aggression by another nation, for example, or the protection of innocent human life. Maybe even to restore international order.

All three of those reasons would apply to a war defending Ukraine against the Russian invasion. None of those reasons apply to Trump’s decision to initiate a war with Iran. In fact, a war with Iran actually aids Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

As I said three weeks ago, You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. I’m just a random guy who reads a lot and follows the news, and even I knew Iran would 1) retaliate militarily and 2) close the Strait of Hormuz. By all accounts, Comrade President Trump’s advisors told him the same thing. He discounted their advice and attacked Iran anyway.

Closing of the Straits jeopardizes the economies of most of Europe, most of whom are providing support to Ukraine. Closing the Straits benefits Russia, because Russian oil becomes more in demand. Russia’s oil and gas revenue financed the invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe against Russian oil have made it more difficult for Russia to sustain their aggression. The US has lifted some of those sanctions in order to keep fuel prices in check. The revenues generated by lifting the sanctions helps Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, by the way, has also been supplying Iran with 1) the drones used to attack ships in the Straits and US forces deployed in the Middle East, and 2) intelligence regarding the locations and defensive characteristics of US forces. Russia has absolutely no incentive to stop providing drones and intel to Iran. The longer the Iran war goes on, the better for Russia and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Trump is better at dancing than he is at conducting a war, and he sucks at dancing.

Trump’s assault on Iran and subsequent lifting of Russian oil sanctions not only helps Russia achieve its political and military objectives, it also hurts traditional US allies and sows global chaos. And as usual, Trump has absolutely no plan to resolve any of this. He is, however, making bank off the war. Trump’s sons invested heavily in companies that manufacture…that’s right. Drones.

None of this was necessary. It will take years…maybe generations…to undo the damage Trump has inflicted on the United States in fifteen months. But it would be nice if we could kickstart the recovery by putting lots of Trumps in prison.

well, shit…

It looks like Comrade President Trump is going to launch an assault on Iran. Why? Who the fuck knows? Trump certainly doesn’t.

Trump’s offered a few different reasons why he’d like to attack Iran. He’s said it’s probably necessary because of Iran’s nuclear program (which he claimed he’d obliterated just a few months ago). He’s also said an assault may be necessary to protect the right of the citizens of Iran to peacefully demonstrate (which is more than he’s willing to do for the citizens of Minnesota). He’s muttered something about regime change.

The fact is, Trump hasn’t articulated any actual cause to justify an attack on Iran. He hasn’t done any of the stuff democracy expects before a Commander-in-Chief sends troops into harm’s way. He hasn’t consulted Congress, he hasn’t tried to convince the American citizenry of any need, he hasn’t said why an assault is necessary at this particular point in time. All he’s done is make a few casual remarks when talking to reporters. Well, he’s also shifted a significant chunk of US naval military might into the region. Why? Because maybe he’ll decide he feels like launching an attack. You know, for reasons.

I mean, we know why he’s doing this really. He’s doing it because he thinks it makes him seem manly (and because Pete Hegseth has a combat stiffy). He’s doing it because he’s frustrated with the recent SCOTUS decision regarding tariffs. He’s doing it because he enjoys knowing he has the power to do it. He’s doing it because he wants the rest of the world to be afraid of him, to curry his favor. And he’s doing it because he desperately needs another distraction from the Epstein files, given the recent development with Prince Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. And given the fact that his Secretary of Commerce has been caught lying about his relationship with Epstein. And given the fact that another half dozen of Trump’s inner circle are mentioned in the Epstein files. And given the painfully obvious fact that Trump his ownself is mentioned in the files more than a million times.

But Trump is also a coward. He might NOT do it. Not for any responsible reason, but because he’s afraid of what might come next. He truly likes to think of himself–and have others think of him–as a wartime president. But Iran isn’t Venezuela. You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. Back in June of last year, when Trump launched his attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Iran launched a reprisal assault on US bases in Qatar. The next day, Trump announced a ceasefire. Back in 2020, Trump approved a drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Five days later, Iran launched a series of missile attacks on US bases in Iraq AND shot down a civilian Ukrainian airliner. Trump didn’t respond to those counter-attacks. Trump, remember, is the POTUS who shrugged when told Russia was paying bounties for US forces killed in Afghanistan.

Trump isn’t afraid to hit others, but he’s terrified of being hit in return. There’s a reason they call him TACO Don (Trump Always Chickens Out). So he might choose not to attack Iran again.

Or he might. That’s the thing about Trump. He’s not motivated by anything except money, power, and whatever stimulus is triggering his central nervous system at any given moment. There’s a very real chance he’ll launch an attack on Iran simply because he’s moved all those military resources there and thinks he might as well do something with them.

All we can do is resist. And mutter, “Well, shit…” when he does something wildly stupid and harmful. And vote. Vote in every election–federal, state, county, municipal, vote out the motherfuckers who support Trump. Vote out every motherfucker who tolerates Trump. Resist and vote until one day we can wake up and read the news and NOT mutter, “Well, shit…”

an amazing thing

Before actually addressing the nation, Comrade President Trump called in to Fox & Friends to chat about the raid that captured/kidnapped Venezuelan president Maduro. He said this:

“I mean, I watched it literally l like I was watching a television show. If you would’ve seen the speed, the violence — it was an amazing thing.”

Like I was watching a television show. There it is. Trump and his Cabinet of Yahoo Nazgûl suffer from cinematic epistemology. Their understanding of how the world works–and more importantly, how military operations work–is based on action movies. The good guys (and, again, this is TrumpCo’s definition of ‘good guys’) swoop in quickly, there are explosions and gunfire, a few secondary characters get shot (and maybe die heroically), the bad guys are killed or captured, the good guys manage to barely escape. Once back at their base, the exhausted heroes laugh and joke and maybe weep manly tears for their lost/wounded comrades, but are nevertheless proud to have served their nation. Then the credits roll.

They don’t give much thought to what happens after the credits roll. That shit’s boring. If the film is profitable and draws an appreciative audience, they may consider a sequel. Maybe in a new setting. But basically, once the music starts and the lights go up, the movie’s over. Somebody will clean up and put stuff in order, doesn’t much matter who.

Did some Venezuelans die during this raid? Nobody’s bothered to discuss that. They’re just background actors. Non-player characters. Who cares about NPCs?

Don’t get me wrong, Maduro IS a bad guy. A very bad guy. He’s a dictator; he’s banned opposition parties, he stole Venezuela’s last election, he’d blatantly corrupt, he’s encouraged corruption among his administration and military leaders. He’s approved of torture and murder. He’s made deals with drug dealers. He’s…well, he’s a lot like Trump his ownself.

But Maduro really isn’t the issue. At least not for those of us in the US. The issue for us is that we have a corrupt, delusional president, a Cabinet that caters to his corruption and delusions, a Congress that refuses to challenge him, and a Supreme Court that shrugs off most of his depredations.

We’re not in a goddamn movie. We need leaders who understand that. We desperately need leaders who’ll at least try to hold Trump and his enablers accountable.

Editorial Note: The illustration is an 1883 wood engraving by Albert Robida for his book entitled “Le vingtième siècle” (The Twentieth Century). The original caption is “Les correspondants à la guerre” (The war correspondents).

Trumpsgiving

Two National Guard troops from West Virginia were ambushed yesterday in Washington, DC by an Afghan immigrant. WHY did this happen?

I’m going to speculate here. (Okay, quick tangent: the term speculate comes from the Latin ‘speculari‘, meaning ‘to observe’. Originally it meant to observe closely and intelligently, but by the 16th century it acquired a hint of disparagement and began to mean mere conjecture. I’m hoping to speculate in the original sense of the term.)

I speculate that we can draw a fairly straight line from Trump’s 2020 deal to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan to yesterday’s shooting.

You may not recall, but Trump basically betrayed the recognized Afghan government by negotiating a deal with the Taliban (AKA the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which the US did NOT recognize as a legit government). He agreed 1) to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan within 14 months, 2) to close five US air bases within 135 days, 3) to NOT to provide air support for Afghan forces unless Taliban units were within 500 meters of those forces, and 4) to require the Afghan government to release 5000 Taliban prisoners (allowing them to resume fighting against Afghan government). In exchange, the Taliban promised not to attack US forces (they could still attack Afghan forces).

This was a disastrous deal. Not only did the US have to sacrifice a LOT of equipment by closing those five airbases in such a short time, but that equipment was seized by the Taliban. After the agreement was signed, the Taliban conducted more than 4,500 attacks against Afghan forces. Without US military ground and air support, the next 45 days were among the bloodiest in the 20 years of war.

Trump signed the agreement in February of 2020; in January of 2021, Uncle Joe Biden became president. He was obligated by Trump’s agreement to withdraw the rest of the US forces from Afghanistan, which he did. It was predictably chaotic. However, Biden also initiated a program called Operation Allies Welcome to evacuate thousands Afghans who were at risk of Taliban reprisal.

Not surprisingly, Trump and MAGA were critical of Biden for ‘abandoning’ Afghans who helped the US AND for welcoming too many Afghans into the US. Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the accused shooter, was one of more than seventy thousand Afghans who emigrated to the US as part of that program.

In August of this year, Trump cancelled many of the programs created to help those Afghan refugees who’d aided US forces during the war. He also fired the members of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts (CARE) team administering what was now called Operation Enduring Welcome. He strippied them of their legal status, targeting them for deportation back to Afghanistan, where they would be in danger from the Taliban.

At this point in time, we’ve no information if Lakanwal and/or his family were facing deportation.

Combine that with Trump’s decision to deploy National Guard troops to Washington, DC and other Democrat-controlled states and cities against the wishes of the leaders AND the residents of those cities. Combine that with the depredations of ICE essentially kidnapping people and deporting them without any due process.

And hey bingo, here we are.

Again, this is just speculation. Many of us have also speculated that Trump’s purpose in deploying all those troops despite the opposition of the populace was to provoke some sort of incident that would allow him to further militarize Democratic-controlled cities and states. And now we hear Trump vowing to deploy even more troops to DC.

Today in the US we’re supposed to celebrate Thanksgiving. Traditionally, this holiday was to commemorate the harvest of 1621, in which the Plymouth colonists shared a feast with members of the Wampanoag tribe, who’d helped them survive both a plague and a disastrous winter in the preceding year. This year in particular, there is still much to be thankful for, but there’s also a LOT to be angry about.

There is NO reason for troops to be deployed, there is NO reason for immigrants to be deported in this manner, there is NO reason to withdraw help from those who’ve helped us, and there is NO reason for the families of the wounded National Guard members to have to deal with this, especially on this day. No reason other than Trump.

This year it’s Trumpsgiving. Eat your pie, love your friends and family, and be prepared to stand up to tyranny.

    things happen

    Obscenity piled on obscenity. It was completely obscene for Comrade President Donald Trump to welcome Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of Saudi Arabia into the White House. It was obscene that he held a formal state dinner to honor the Crown Prince. It was obscene that Trump referred to MBS as an “extremely respected man” who was also “a friend of mine.” It was deeply, deeply obscene for Trump to praise MBS for his work on human rights. But most obscene of all was his defense of the assassination and dismemberment of Jamal Khashoggi.

    ABC News reporter Mary Bruce asked a question: “Your royal highness, the U.S. intelligence concluded that you orchestrated the brutal murder of a journalist. 9/11 families are furious that you are here in the Oval Office. Why should Americans trust you? And the same to you, Mr. President?” Trump’s answer:

    “You’re mentioning someone that was extremely controversial. A lot of people didn’t like that gentleman that you’re talking about. Whether you like him or didn’t like him, things happen. But he (MBS) knew nothing about it, and we can leave it at that. You don’t have to embarrass our guest.”

    Things happen? Things like assassination and dismemberment? They just happen?

    There’s a lot of blood on those hands.

    Jamal Khashoggi, a reporter who was critical of Saudi royalty, had fled to the US out of fear of government reprisals. In 2018, he wanted to marry Hatice Cengiz, a Turkish citizen. It would be his second marriage. In order to remarry, Khashoggie needed official documentation that his Saudi marriage had been dissolved, which required him to visit the Saudi consulate in Istanbul. He made his first visit to the consulate unannounced, out of fear that he might be kidnapped and returned to Saudi Arabia. He was told he had to come back later. Khashoggi brought Ms. Cengiz with him on his second visit, but asked her to wait outside.

    She waited. He never came back out.

    US intelligence agencies determined that a Saudi hit team had been assembled on the order of Mohammed bin Salman. That team was waiting for Khashoggi. They tortured him, strangled him, and dismembered him with a bone saw. We know this because Turkish security agencies had bugged the Saudi consulate and made the tape of the assassination available. The assessment report by the CIA (along with a copy of the audio tape) was given to Trump. He stated he didn’t listen to the tape; he refused to release the report to the public.

    Seven years later, Trump is back in power and trying to help rehabilitate the reputation of MBS. Trump’s sons are engaged in developing golf resorts in Saudi Arabia. Trump’s golf courses in the US host tournaments sponsored by Saudi money. Saudi royalty buys expensive Trump properties. These things, these deals, they just…happen.

    Let’s face it, Trump likes powerful autocrats who can make things happen. I’m fairly certain he wishes he had more power to make things happen to persons who “a lot of people” don’t like. MBS can order a reporter kidnapped, tortured, murdered and dismembered; Trump has to make do with blowing up boat crewed by anonymous Venezuelans who might be drug runners or might just be unlucky fishermen. Trump wishes he could wield the sort of absolute power MBS has, and that should scare the absolute shit out of all Americans.

    Things happen, and Trump says we shouldn’t embarrass the people involved in those things by asking impertinent questions. He especially dislikes it when those impertinent questions are asked by women. Like ABC’s Mary Bruce. Like Bloomberg’s Catherine Lucey (who Trump pointed his finger at and told her, “Quiet, piggy.”). Like all the women victimized by Jeffrey Epstein.

    Things happen. We’ve been waiting for them to happen to Trump. It’s time for us to stop waiting and make things happen. Yesterday’s near-unanimous vote to release the Epstein files during the visit of the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia was a fine beginning.

    we’re straight up murdering people now

    Yesterday the United States military attacked and destroyed a civilian vessel in international waters, killing eleven people. Comrade Trump claims the boat was carrying narcotics bound for the US, and that the victims were members of Tren de Aragua, the Venezuelan drug cartel.

    The alleged ‘drug boat’ moments before being obliterated.

    That may be true. We don’t know. We can’t know because we blew them up. What we DO know is this:

    1. It was a civilian vessel.
    2. The vessel wasn’t an immediate threat to anybody or anything.
    3. There was apparently no attempt to intercept the vessel.
    4. There was no attempt to disable the vessel.
    5. There’s no declaration of hostilities against Venezuela.

    In other words, the Trump administration hasn’t presented any evidence to justify the use of military force against this boat. It appears to be an extrajudicial killing of 11 people. Which is illegal as fuck.

    If we can locate and track the vessel accurately enough to fire a missile up its ass (and we obviously did), then we can track it long enough to intercept it in US waters. At that point, we could determine if there were, in fact, narcotics onboard. If so, we could then detain the crew, interrogate them about the source of the drugs, and hold them for trial in a criminal court. We could have followed the law.

    But nope.

    There appears to be no reason to blow them up except to gratify the blood lust of Trump and his Cabinet of Nazgûl. This is literally murder. It’s criminal on the part of the people who ordered the missile fired and the person who actually fired it. However, there’s no chance any of them will be held accountable.

    It’s important to remember that back in February, just a few weeks after Trump resumed the presidency, Pete Hegseth summarily fired the senior Judge Advocates General of the Army, Navy, and Air Force. These are the officers responsible for enforcing the Uniform Code of Military Justice. Hegseth actually said the JAGs were fired because he didn’t want them to be “roadblocks to orders given by a commander in chief.” That was, in effect, an announcement that Trump intended to use US military forces in ways forbidden by the UCMJ.

    And now he has. And what’s perhaps scarier is this: military personnel have shown themselves willing to execute orders they know are illegal, in direct violation of the oath they swore when they entered military service.

    Killing these eleven people in this particular way–and doing it openly–is a test and a declaration. It’s a test to see the domestic and international response. And it’s a declaration that Trump intends to use the US military in ways that are expressly forbidden to further his own political and personal agenda.

    This is straight up dictatorial bullshit. And with a MAGA-controlled Congress, Trump will get away with it.

    first headline i saw this morning

    So I wake up this morning to a headline saying MAGA extremists made a deal with other MAGA extremists to advance the massive tax cut bill proposed by THE MAGA extremist (yeah, I’m talking about Comrade Trump, and while we’re at it, how creepy is it that they’re now referring to him as ‘Daddy’?).

    What was included in the deal? You don’t want to know. I mean, it’s so fucking discouraging. But it’s also probably almost exactly what you expected. So what the hell, here’s JUST ONE facet of that deal. Florida Senator Rick Scott (you know him as the Guy Who Looks Like Gollum Became a Vampire and Got a Job on Wall Street) said he wanted to “do more to reduce the amount of money spent on able-bodied adults who are allowed to enroll into Medicaid.”

    Sen. Rick Scott (MAGA, Transylvania)

    You may not know this about Rick Scott. He co-founded a hospital corporation which eventually became Columbia/HCA, the nation’s largest for-profit health care company. That sounds sorta impressive, doesn’t it. BUT (there’s always a ‘but’ with these motherfuckers), Scott had to resign from Columbia/HCA. Why? You know exactly why (it’s always fraud with these motherfuckers). Columbia/HCA was found guilty of defrauding Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal programs. Bill Clinton’s DOJ prosecuted the company and they were convicted of 14 felonies and fined $1.7 billion. At the time, it was the largest healthcare fraud settlement in U.S. history.

    What did Rick Scott’s healthcare corporation do under his leadership? 1) They billed for tests that weren’t necessary and/or hadn’t been ordered by doctors physicians, 2) they attached false diagnosis codes to patient records to increase reimbursement to the hospitals, 3) they falsely claimed marketing and advertising costs as community education, and 4) they billed for home health care visits for patients who didn’t qualify to receive them. And that’s why Rick Scott was forced to resign.

    Now that he’s no longer getting that sweet sweet Medicare fraud money, Scott wants to reduce funding for Medicare to prevent fraud. If you tried to write that into a movie script, nobody would believe it.

    BUT that’s not all (it’s never ‘all’ with these motherfuckers, there’s always more). Scott said he and other MAGA conservatives want to “stop Blue State governors from taking advantage of Red States.” He actually said that, right out loud (these motherfuckers are always saying stupid stuff right out loud). That’s bullshit, of course. If you’re not already aware of this, blue states contribute nearly 60% of all federal tax receipts. Blue states generally pay more in taxes than they receive in government spending. Red states receive more money from the government than they pay in taxes. Red states leech off of blue states.

    Rick Scott knows this; but he’s not the sort of person who is constrained by truth. Or fact. Or honor, or a sense of shared humanity, or any notion of decency, or or or. They’re all hypocrites, these motherfuckers. All of them. Every single one.

    Anyway, that was the first headline I saw. I haven’t read any more news this morning. I don’t think I need to.