this isn’t a war of choice; it’s a war of impulse

I read an article recently that referred to “Trump’s hastily planned war.” Hastily planned? This is a war plan drawn on the back of a bar napkin. To describe this as a half-assed war plan would be complimentary. I’ve also seen this war described as “a war of choice.” That’s wrong too. It’s war of impulse–a war that began because of Trump’s urge to do something without giving any thought to the consequences. He’s not conducting a war; he’s winging it.

And it’s entirely pointless. Even if we knew what Trump thought he might accomplish by starting this unprovoked war, it wouldn’t matter…because there’s nothing meaningful that can come out of it. Regime change? Not gonna happen, really. We’re talking about a hard-line extreme Islamic leadership backed up by 125,000 devout and devoted members of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, backed up by another 50-90 thousand paramilitary Basij volunteers. The US and/or Israel can kill a whole lot of religious leaders with bombs and missiles, but you can’t kill an army that way. Hell, neither Russia nor the US could destroy the Taliban in Afghanistan, and they’re a ragtag military group. Very dedicated, but not militarily sophisticated.

Another reason Trump has given for starting this unprovoked war is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Which they were incapable of doing. They weren’t capable of doing it even before Trump’s attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities nine months ago; US intelligence estimates back then suggested it would be around a decade before Iran could develop a nuclear weapon and a means to deliver it to the US homeland. Maybe Trump can claim this time he really really really obliterated their nuclear program. But hey, they’ll just start up again, with Russia’s help.

Look, Iran has been a low level threat against the US since 1979. The government of Iran is a fucking nightmare, both to its neighboring countries and to its own people. Every US president since then has done something to punish Iran. So yeah, we’ve been in constant conflict with Iran. Our relationship with Iran is a lot like our relationship with North Korea. But here’s the thing: there’s not much we can do to make Iran (or North Korea, for that matter) a better place.

Smarter presidents than Trump looked at Iran and tried to moderate their behavior through diplomacy, propaganda, and aid packages. Trump shitcanned international aid, killed off the US propaganda outlets (like Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty), and replaced professional diplomats with venal, greed-headed real estate vultures. Now US international policy is grounded in threats, insults, open corruption, and the occasional punch in the face.

So how does this unprovoked (and yes, I’ll keep repeating the fact that this stupid war was unprovoked) war end? Fuck if I know. If we’re lucky, Trump will just announce that he’s won the war and will withdraw US forces from the region. The world economy will remain fucked up; the US economy will be tanked, but at least we won’t be in a stupid war. Or at least we won’t be in that particular stupid war. Trump is perfect capable of starting another stupid war somewhere else. Like Cuba.

If we’re not lucky? I hate to even think about it.

how stupid is this war?

All wars are stupid, even the rare necessary ones. Some folks say war is never necessary, and while I respect that belief, I disagree with it. I believe there are a few valid reasons for a nation…any nation…to go to war. All of those reasons are responsive–taken in response to some specific act. Military aggression by another nation, for example, or the protection of innocent human life. Maybe even to restore international order.

All three of those reasons would apply to a war defending Ukraine against the Russian invasion. None of those reasons apply to Trump’s decision to initiate a war with Iran. In fact, a war with Iran actually aids Russia’s aggression against Ukraine.

As I said three weeks ago, You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. I’m just a random guy who reads a lot and follows the news, and even I knew Iran would 1) retaliate militarily and 2) close the Strait of Hormuz. By all accounts, Comrade President Trump’s advisors told him the same thing. He discounted their advice and attacked Iran anyway.

Closing of the Straits jeopardizes the economies of most of Europe, most of whom are providing support to Ukraine. Closing the Straits benefits Russia, because Russian oil becomes more in demand. Russia’s oil and gas revenue financed the invasion of Ukraine, and the sanctions imposed by the US and Europe against Russian oil have made it more difficult for Russia to sustain their aggression. The US has lifted some of those sanctions in order to keep fuel prices in check. The revenues generated by lifting the sanctions helps Russia in its invasion of Ukraine.

Russia, by the way, has also been supplying Iran with 1) the drones used to attack ships in the Straits and US forces deployed in the Middle East, and 2) intelligence regarding the locations and defensive characteristics of US forces. Russia has absolutely no incentive to stop providing drones and intel to Iran. The longer the Iran war goes on, the better for Russia and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Trump is better at dancing than he is at conducting a war, and he sucks at dancing.

Trump’s assault on Iran and subsequent lifting of Russian oil sanctions not only helps Russia achieve its political and military objectives, it also hurts traditional US allies and sows global chaos. And as usual, Trump has absolutely no plan to resolve any of this. He is, however, making bank off the war. Trump’s sons invested heavily in companies that manufacture…that’s right. Drones.

None of this was necessary. It will take years…maybe generations…to undo the damage Trump has inflicted on the United States in fifteen months. But it would be nice if we could kickstart the recovery by putting lots of Trumps in prison.

well, shit…

It looks like Comrade President Trump is going to launch an assault on Iran. Why? Who the fuck knows? Trump certainly doesn’t.

Trump’s offered a few different reasons why he’d like to attack Iran. He’s said it’s probably necessary because of Iran’s nuclear program (which he claimed he’d obliterated just a few months ago). He’s also said an assault may be necessary to protect the right of the citizens of Iran to peacefully demonstrate (which is more than he’s willing to do for the citizens of Minnesota). He’s muttered something about regime change.

The fact is, Trump hasn’t articulated any actual cause to justify an attack on Iran. He hasn’t done any of the stuff democracy expects before a Commander-in-Chief sends troops into harm’s way. He hasn’t consulted Congress, he hasn’t tried to convince the American citizenry of any need, he hasn’t said why an assault is necessary at this particular point in time. All he’s done is make a few casual remarks when talking to reporters. Well, he’s also shifted a significant chunk of US naval military might into the region. Why? Because maybe he’ll decide he feels like launching an attack. You know, for reasons.

I mean, we know why he’s doing this really. He’s doing it because he thinks it makes him seem manly (and because Pete Hegseth has a combat stiffy). He’s doing it because he’s frustrated with the recent SCOTUS decision regarding tariffs. He’s doing it because he enjoys knowing he has the power to do it. He’s doing it because he wants the rest of the world to be afraid of him, to curry his favor. And he’s doing it because he desperately needs another distraction from the Epstein files, given the recent development with Prince Andrew Mountbatten Windsor. And given the fact that his Secretary of Commerce has been caught lying about his relationship with Epstein. And given the fact that another half dozen of Trump’s inner circle are mentioned in the Epstein files. And given the painfully obvious fact that Trump his ownself is mentioned in the files more than a million times.

But Trump is also a coward. He might NOT do it. Not for any responsible reason, but because he’s afraid of what might come next. He truly likes to think of himself–and have others think of him–as a wartime president. But Iran isn’t Venezuela. You attack Iran, and Iran hits back. Back in June of last year, when Trump launched his attack on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, Iran launched a reprisal assault on US bases in Qatar. The next day, Trump announced a ceasefire. Back in 2020, Trump approved a drone strike against Qasem Soleimani, the leader of Iran’s Quds Force. Five days later, Iran launched a series of missile attacks on US bases in Iraq AND shot down a civilian Ukrainian airliner. Trump didn’t respond to those counter-attacks. Trump, remember, is the POTUS who shrugged when told Russia was paying bounties for US forces killed in Afghanistan.

Trump isn’t afraid to hit others, but he’s terrified of being hit in return. There’s a reason they call him TACO Don (Trump Always Chickens Out). So he might choose not to attack Iran again.

Or he might. That’s the thing about Trump. He’s not motivated by anything except money, power, and whatever stimulus is triggering his central nervous system at any given moment. There’s a very real chance he’ll launch an attack on Iran simply because he’s moved all those military resources there and thinks he might as well do something with them.

All we can do is resist. And mutter, “Well, shit…” when he does something wildly stupid and harmful. And vote. Vote in every election–federal, state, county, municipal, vote out the motherfuckers who support Trump. Vote out every motherfucker who tolerates Trump. Resist and vote until one day we can wake up and read the news and NOT mutter, “Well, shit…”

cnut, hammett, and trump

I recently mentioned to a friend that, despite the ongoing horror of Minneapolis, I feel more optimistic about the future than I did a year ago. And he agreed. He said something like, “It’s that whole King Cnut thing, right? Trump may think he’s the king, but even the king can’t hold back the tide.”

I stopped myself from correcting him. For some reason, people think the Cnut versus the Tide story is about Cnut’s arrogance. It’s not. I’ve forgotten the issue at hand, but Cnut’s posse was suggesting that as king, he had godlike powers. Cnut was saying, “Nope, I’m just a guy with a good job.” When he set his throne on the beach and ordered the tide NOT to get his feet wet, he was demonstrating the fact that he couldn’t hold back the tide.

Cnut getting his shoes wet.

But aside from buggering up the analogy, my friend is (I think) correct. Trump may think he’s got godlike authority. He’s certainly acting like it. In Minneapolis, in Greenland, in courtrooms across the US, in social media. Just yesterday on his Truth Social site, he (or one of this fluffers) wrote:

In Minnesota, the Troublemakers, Agitators, and Insurrectionists are, in many cases, highly paid professionals. The Governor and Mayor don’t know what to do, they have totally lost control, and our [sic] currently being rendered, USELESS! If, and when, I’m forced to act, it will be solved, QUICKLY and EFFECTIVELY! President DJT

This is Trump distilled. Three lines–all lies–that encompass Trump’s view of the world. First, he presumes nobody ever takes a risk for any reason other than personal gain. If people demonstrate against him, somebody must be paying them. Second, he’s compelled to belittle and insult those who oppose or disagree with him. And third, he needs to assert his own superiority–to brag about his own abilities. It’s all there in three lines.

Does he actually believe all that? Maybe. I don’t know. Dashiell Hammett, in a 1923 short story, wrote, ‘If a man says a thing often enough, he is very likely to acquire some sort of faith in it sooner or later.’ Hammett was pretty astute. I assume there are moments when Trump is truly convinced he’s a superior being.

It doesn’t really matter if Trump believes his own bullshit. The tide doesn’t. And like my friend, I’m inclined to believe the tide is slowly turning against Trump. He’ll shout and threaten and bluster and bribe, but he’ll never control Greenland and he’ll never subdue Minneapolis.

The tide is an insistent sumbitch.

an amazing thing

Before actually addressing the nation, Comrade President Trump called in to Fox & Friends to chat about the raid that captured/kidnapped Venezuelan president Maduro. He said this:

“I mean, I watched it literally l like I was watching a television show. If you would’ve seen the speed, the violence — it was an amazing thing.”

Like I was watching a television show. There it is. Trump and his Cabinet of Yahoo Nazgûl suffer from cinematic epistemology. Their understanding of how the world works–and more importantly, how military operations work–is based on action movies. The good guys (and, again, this is TrumpCo’s definition of ‘good guys’) swoop in quickly, there are explosions and gunfire, a few secondary characters get shot (and maybe die heroically), the bad guys are killed or captured, the good guys manage to barely escape. Once back at their base, the exhausted heroes laugh and joke and maybe weep manly tears for their lost/wounded comrades, but are nevertheless proud to have served their nation. Then the credits roll.

They don’t give much thought to what happens after the credits roll. That shit’s boring. If the film is profitable and draws an appreciative audience, they may consider a sequel. Maybe in a new setting. But basically, once the music starts and the lights go up, the movie’s over. Somebody will clean up and put stuff in order, doesn’t much matter who.

Did some Venezuelans die during this raid? Nobody’s bothered to discuss that. They’re just background actors. Non-player characters. Who cares about NPCs?

Don’t get me wrong, Maduro IS a bad guy. A very bad guy. He’s a dictator; he’s banned opposition parties, he stole Venezuela’s last election, he’d blatantly corrupt, he’s encouraged corruption among his administration and military leaders. He’s approved of torture and murder. He’s made deals with drug dealers. He’s…well, he’s a lot like Trump his ownself.

But Maduro really isn’t the issue. At least not for those of us in the US. The issue for us is that we have a corrupt, delusional president, a Cabinet that caters to his corruption and delusions, a Congress that refuses to challenge him, and a Supreme Court that shrugs off most of his depredations.

We’re not in a goddamn movie. We need leaders who understand that. We desperately need leaders who’ll at least try to hold Trump and his enablers accountable.

Editorial Note: The illustration is an 1883 wood engraving by Albert Robida for his book entitled “Le vingtième siècle” (The Twentieth Century). The original caption is “Les correspondants à la guerre” (The war correspondents).

punchdrunk villa

When you have an infantile Secretary of Defense with an inferiority complex and a desperate need to prove his manhood (yes, I’m talking about Pete Hegseth here), you have to expect a lot…and I mean a lot…of performative macho bullshit. Like murdering alleged drug runners in small craft with MQ-9 Reaper drones firing Hellfire missiles. Like inventing military medals so he and Commander-in-Chief Comrade President Trump can hand them out on stage.

I’m talking about the Mexican Border Defense Medal. It’s basically the Temu version of the Mexican Border Service Medal issued in 1918. The Mexican Border Service Medal was issued to troops who weren’t eligible for the Mexican Service Medal, which was issued in 1917.

Okay, there’s a good chance you’re saying, “Wait…what?” right about now. Here’s what you need to know (okay, you don’t actually need to know this, but it’ll help if you want to understand all this). For about eight and a half years–from 1910 to 1919–the US was involved in a low intensity (punctuated by some serious, deadly skirmishes and battles) border war with Mexico. Mexico was engaged in a civil war at the time. On top of that, Mexico was also a potential ally of Germany in World War One. Really, it was a whole thing–Germany sent a secret, encoded telegram to Mexico saying if the US entered the war against Germany, Germany would help Mexico invade the US and recapture the states of New Mexico, Texas, and Arizona. So yeah, the US had troops at the Southern border. We even invaded a few times, and at one point occupied Veracruz for half a year.

Gen. John ‘Blackjack’ Pershing during the Mexican War

The thing is, there was a shooting war with Mexico and some Mexican paramilitary elements (like Pancho Villa), and even a few German soldiers. So the troops involved in that shooting war were given a medal. The Mexican Service Medal. Some of the serious Big Hat folks in World Wars 1 and 2 earned that medal. Like ‘Blackjack’ Pershing, and Douglas MacArthur, and George Patton, and John LeJeune.

A year later, troops who weren’t involved in the shooting part of the war–the troops who provided logistics and support (without which the combat troops would go into battle with rocks and sharpened sticks)–were awarded the the Mexican Border Service Medal. They also faced danger.

Now Pete Hegseth and Comrade Trump have issued the Mexican Border Defense Medal. You’re probably wondering how a service member earns this prestigious new medal. Well, I’ll tell you. They have to be assigned, attached, or detailed for at least 30 days to a unit deployed within 100 miles of the US-Mexico border (or 24 nautical miles in adjacent US waters) as part of a designated operation supporting the Customs and Border Protection Agency.

Pete Hegseth awards the Mexican Border Defense Medal (to a woman who could probably kick his ass).

Seriously. That’s it. You didn’t have to actually DO anything. Just be assigned to a unit near the border. It’s such light duty Pete Hegseth thinks even girls can do it. And hell, he’ll hand them a medal too. That’s the kind of guy he is. I’m sure he’d rather be giving the medal to the MQ-9 Reaper drone operators, but they’re sitting in air conditioned rooms in (probably) Yuma, Arizona, which is too far away for them to get the Mexican Border Defense Medal.

But what’s important is that the medal gives Hegseth and Comrade Trump a chance to stand around with men (and a token number of women) in uniform and hand them a medal. It makes them feel important. Competent. Maybe even manly. During the ceremony in which the first 13 medals were issued, Trump noted that the troops had “endured scorching heat and bitter cold, and had given up their holidays and weekends.”

Greater love hath no man (or, possibly, woman) than to give up holidays and weekends to…to…to stop families escaping poverty and violence from crossing the Southern border of the United States?

Jesus suffering fuck…these people, I declare.

Trumpsgiving

Two National Guard troops from West Virginia were ambushed yesterday in Washington, DC by an Afghan immigrant. WHY did this happen?

I’m going to speculate here. (Okay, quick tangent: the term speculate comes from the Latin ‘speculari‘, meaning ‘to observe’. Originally it meant to observe closely and intelligently, but by the 16th century it acquired a hint of disparagement and began to mean mere conjecture. I’m hoping to speculate in the original sense of the term.)

I speculate that we can draw a fairly straight line from Trump’s 2020 deal to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan to yesterday’s shooting.

You may not recall, but Trump basically betrayed the recognized Afghan government by negotiating a deal with the Taliban (AKA the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, which the US did NOT recognize as a legit government). He agreed 1) to withdraw US forces from Afghanistan within 14 months, 2) to close five US air bases within 135 days, 3) to NOT to provide air support for Afghan forces unless Taliban units were within 500 meters of those forces, and 4) to require the Afghan government to release 5000 Taliban prisoners (allowing them to resume fighting against Afghan government). In exchange, the Taliban promised not to attack US forces (they could still attack Afghan forces).

This was a disastrous deal. Not only did the US have to sacrifice a LOT of equipment by closing those five airbases in such a short time, but that equipment was seized by the Taliban. After the agreement was signed, the Taliban conducted more than 4,500 attacks against Afghan forces. Without US military ground and air support, the next 45 days were among the bloodiest in the 20 years of war.

Trump signed the agreement in February of 2020; in January of 2021, Uncle Joe Biden became president. He was obligated by Trump’s agreement to withdraw the rest of the US forces from Afghanistan, which he did. It was predictably chaotic. However, Biden also initiated a program called Operation Allies Welcome to evacuate thousands Afghans who were at risk of Taliban reprisal.

Not surprisingly, Trump and MAGA were critical of Biden for ‘abandoning’ Afghans who helped the US AND for welcoming too many Afghans into the US. Rahmanullah Lakanwal, the accused shooter, was one of more than seventy thousand Afghans who emigrated to the US as part of that program.

In August of this year, Trump cancelled many of the programs created to help those Afghan refugees who’d aided US forces during the war. He also fired the members of the Coordinator for Afghan Relocation Efforts (CARE) team administering what was now called Operation Enduring Welcome. He strippied them of their legal status, targeting them for deportation back to Afghanistan, where they would be in danger from the Taliban.

At this point in time, we’ve no information if Lakanwal and/or his family were facing deportation.

Combine that with Trump’s decision to deploy National Guard troops to Washington, DC and other Democrat-controlled states and cities against the wishes of the leaders AND the residents of those cities. Combine that with the depredations of ICE essentially kidnapping people and deporting them without any due process.

And hey bingo, here we are.

Again, this is just speculation. Many of us have also speculated that Trump’s purpose in deploying all those troops despite the opposition of the populace was to provoke some sort of incident that would allow him to further militarize Democratic-controlled cities and states. And now we hear Trump vowing to deploy even more troops to DC.

Today in the US we’re supposed to celebrate Thanksgiving. Traditionally, this holiday was to commemorate the harvest of 1621, in which the Plymouth colonists shared a feast with members of the Wampanoag tribe, who’d helped them survive both a plague and a disastrous winter in the preceding year. This year in particular, there is still much to be thankful for, but there’s also a LOT to be angry about.

There is NO reason for troops to be deployed, there is NO reason for immigrants to be deported in this manner, there is NO reason to withdraw help from those who’ve helped us, and there is NO reason for the families of the wounded National Guard members to have to deal with this, especially on this day. No reason other than Trump.

This year it’s Trumpsgiving. Eat your pie, love your friends and family, and be prepared to stand up to tyranny.

    unlawful orders

    We’re seeing a lot of discourse about troops and how they should respond to unlawful orders. That’s good. What’s NOT so good, though, is that almost all of the discourse is naive. Much of it comes from civilians who’ve never served and don’t understand how the military operates, or from veterans who were officers. Very little of it is coming from former enlisted personnel–the poor bastards who actually have to carry out those orders.

    Here’s a True Thing and in order to actually understand the current discourse you have to accept the truth of this: the foundation of all military hierarchies is grounded on one simple rule: you are required to immediately obey a direct order from a superior officer. In the military, a direct order is a specific, clear command to do something. Go there, do this. The military instills this in all enlisted troops because in combat, you don’t have time to discuss direct orders. You can’t mull over the moral, ethical, or legal implications of the order. You just have to obey it. Even if the direct order is stupid, even if it’s blatantly obvious to you that it’s the wrong thing to do, even if it puts you or others in extreme danger. You’re supposed to just fucking DO it and do it immediately. You’re actually trained to just fucking do it.

    The only acceptable military response to a direct order is “Yes sir.”

    But but but…what if the order is unlawful? You’re obligated to obey a direct order, but you’re also obligated to REFUSE to obey a direct order if it’s not lawful. The problem, of course, is most troops have a rather vague notion of what is and what isn’t lawful. That problem is compounded by the fact that a direct order must be obeyed immediately.

    What’s a lawful order? Article 92 of the Uniform Code of Military Justice isn’t particularly helpful. It suggests a direct order should be presumed to be legal:

    “An order requiring the performance of a military duty or act may be inferred to be lawful, and it is disobeyed at the peril of the subordinate. This inference does not apply to a patently illegal order, such as one that directs the commission of a crime. The lawfulness of an order is a question of law to be determined by the military.”

    So, what’s a service member to do if they’re given a direct order and they’re skeptical about the order’s lawfulness? There’s a protocol for that. You’re supposed to:

    1. Seek clarification of the order. Ask the officer, “Sir, I want to make sure I understand. Are you ordering me to do this thing that seems to me like it might be really fucking illegal?” If the officer answers ‘yes’, but you’re STILL not sure it’s legal, then you’re supposed to…
    2. Consult a higher authority. “Sir, I’d like to talk to your superior or maybe a lawyer before I do this thing that seems to be really fucking illegal.”

    Odds are at this point, the officer will order some other service member to put you under arrest. If the order turns out later to have been lawful, you’re fucked; you may do time in a military prison and you’ll get a dishonorable discharge. If it turns out to have been unlawful, guess what: you’re still fucked. Every officer you deal with in the future will be sure to give every shit detail that comes along, because you can’t be trusted to follow orders from your superior officers.

    This is what’s missing from the discourse. The military is unlike civilian life. If you go to work and your boss tells you to do something you think violates the law, you can refuse. The worst that will happen is you’ll be fired. In the military, you could go to prison.

    It’s easy to say to troops, “Just don’t obey.” It’s not that easy for the troops. Especially when they’re serving under a Commander-in-Chief who pardons and celebrates war criminals. It’s easy to remind troops that ‘just following orders’ didn’t help Nazis during the Nuremberg trials. It’s not that easy when it’s your ass that’s looking at arrest and imprisonment.

    That said, troops SHOULD ABSOLUTELY REFUSE to obey orders they believe are unlawful. But we should also be aware of the risk we’re asking them to take.