Here’s what I think (at this particular moment) will happen: the current case Comrade Trump is facing–the documents case–won’t go to trial. I suspect his lawyers will convince him to try to work out some sort of plea arrangement.
I say that because…wait. Just to be clear, I am NOT a lawyer. I’ve banged around the US criminal justice system for many years and I’ve seen a lot of legal/criminal stuff, but I haven’t been to law school and there’s a LOT of stuff I don’t understand.
Okay, that’s out of the way. I say this case won’t go to trial for a very simple reason: I don’t see any defense to the charges. You can read the indictment yourself, but in very simple terms, Comrade Trump is accused of a) hanging on to documents he wasn’t legally allowed to have in his possession, b) lying about having those documents, c) hiding those documents from the people looking for them, d) getting other folks to lie about those documents, and e) getting other folks to help hide them.
So the case comes down to some pretty simple questions and answers. So let’s ask the questions and get the answers.
- Was Trump authorized to have possession of those documents? Nope.
- Did he have possession of them? Yep.
- Did he have reason to believe those documents ‘could be used to the injury of the United States or to the advantage of any foreign nation’? Yep.
- Was he asked to return them? Yep.
- Did he return them? Yes, some of them. And he hasn’t been charged in regard to those particular documents.
- Did he return all of them? Nope.
- Did he lie about returning all of them? Yep.
- Did he get other folks to lie about returning all of them? Yep.
- Did he hide them from the folks who were trying to find them? Yep.
- Did he get other folks to help him hide them? Yep
The only question that MIGHT be in dispute is that first one. Comrade Trump claims the Presidential Records Act authorized him to keep those documents. Does it? Nope. This is what the Act says:
Upon the conclusion of a President’s term of office, or if a President serves consecutive terms upon the conclusion of the last term, the Archivist of the United States shall assume responsibility for the custody, control, and preservation of, and access to, the Presidential records of that President.
The moment Trump ceased to be POTUS and President Uncle Joe took over, Trump lost custody and control of his presidential authority over the records. Claiming the Presidential Records Act can be interpreted differently is a weak argument, but Trump’s lawyers apparently intend to offer it in court–and with Judge Cannon presiding, it may be allowed.
But will it work? Will a jury buy it? Highly unlikely. Why? Because the National Archives repeatedly TOLD Trump IN WRITING about his legal obligation to surrender control over his records. They repeatedly asked him to return documents he’d retained illegally, and gave him multiple opportunities to do so. The fact that he DID return some but still chose NOT to return others is evidence that he understood what the National Archives repeatedly told him–that he wasn’t authorized to keep those fucking documents.
But he kept them anyway.
So as far as I can see (and, again, I’m NOT a lawyer), Comrade Trump’s ONLY defense is that he was too fucking stupid to understand the repeated warnings given to him and his lawyers about returning classified documents EVEN THOUGH he understood it enough to return some of them.
If that’s the only defense he’s got, Trump’s choices are limited. Either go to trial and hope like hell for a MAGA-infected juror who’ll vote to acquit despite the evidence OR come to some sort of plea arrangement. He might offer to plead guilty to a lesser offense in exchange for…something. No prison time, probably. Maybe in exchange for not being indicted on a Seditious Conspiracy charge in the January 6th insurrection.
I’m not saying I LIKE this as a result. I’m just saying I think this is what’s going to happen.
Obviously, Trump won’t enter into a plea negotiation soon. He’ll delay it as long as possible, as long as he can continue to raise funds off his pending trial. But eventually, in my opinion, he and his lawyers will start talking about a plea arrangement. The case against him is just too strong.
gregfallis.com 
Reblogged this on It Is What It Is and commented:
Simple!! Take a look … “Trump won’t enter into a plea negotiation soon. He’ll delay it as long as possible, as long as he can continue to raise funds off his pending trial. But eventually, in my opinion, he and his lawyers will start talking about a plea arrangement.”
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If he takes a plea deal, does that mean he has a criminal record? Does that prevent him from being president?
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Yes, it almost certainly would mean Trump would have a criminal record. There IS a plea arrangement called a nolo contendere plea, however. It basically means the accused won’t admit guilt but still accepts that the State has the evidence to win at trial. It’s a way for the State and the defense to avoid the expense of a trial; the accused accepts the punishment as if found guilty without actually admitting guilt.
It’s possible this could happen in Trump’s case. It would leave almost everybody unsatisfied, but it might reduce the potential for violence by MAGA fuckwits.
But even if Trump goes to trial and is found guilty of the charges in THIS indictment, he can still be elected and serve as president. The only qualifications listed in the Constitution at that the president must 1) be at least 35 years of age, 2) be a natural born citizen, and 3) must have lived in the United States for at least 14 years.
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Frikkin’ hell. That’s grim. So, just to clarify, a person with a criminal record can be president of the USA, but a person with a criminal record can’t enter the USA. Interesting.
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Just to clarify…yes. You can be a felon and actually SERVING TIME IN PRISON and, if you get enough electoral college votes, you can be President of the United States. You were expecting logic, weren’t you.
The thing is, the Founders never considered a felon might actually be a viable candidate.
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There’s something poetic about it all. Not good poetic.
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Just imagine the Founders time-traveling to 2016: “Whoa,” they’d say, “how did humanity become so unhinged? We’ve got to go BACK to 1789 and rewrite that damn Constitution. We thought it was hard then? We had NO idea.” Seriously, they didn’t. Their world, with the few land-owning male white folk, all from the same economic and educational class (and pre–hardcore capitalism), calling the shots, was tame and well-ordered compared to ours. Their heads would spin if they came back now. I like to think that they’d spell a few points out a bit more carefully….
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