that’s done, then

Well, there it is. Hillary Clinton is going to be the next President of These United States. We can all relax now.

Oh, we’ll still have to go through a painfully long and deeply vicious campaign. There’ll be an obscene amount of money spent, and it’ll get ugly really quick, but it won’t make much difference in the end. And, of course, there’s that whole election business, but I don’t think the Republicans can disenfranchise enough voters to prevent her election. So unless she does something incredibly stupid, Hillary will be the first woman president. It’s as inevitable as anything can be in American politics (which is to say it’s pretty fucking inevitable).

Hillary Clinton - Democratic candidate for president

Hillary Clinton – Democratic candidate for president

Here are three reasons why she’ll be elected. First, she’s a Democrat and right now the Democratic party is the only party in the U.S. that isn’t completely batshit insane. The GOP has encouraged and nourished extremists to the extent that nobody can survive a primary race without embracing at least a half-dozen policies that are so fucking ridiculous and/or hateful they’ll make the general public recoil in horror. Or, worse, laughter. Whoever survives the GOP cannibal island primary and gets the nomination will either believe or claim to believe some lunatic fringe ideas. Like evolution is ‘just a theory’ or ‘there’s no scientific consensus on climate change’ or ‘there is a war against Christians in the U.S.’ or ‘the Second Amendment is under attack.’

The most only closest thing they have to a serious candidate is Jeb Bush. Jeb Bush is about as interesting as a blancmange.

Jeb Bush -- Republican candidate for president (probably)

Jeb Bush — Republican candidate for president (probably)

Second, Hillary Clinton is oddly scandal-proof. It’s not that she’s immune to scandal; it’s that she’s been a scandal magnet for so long that another scandal won’t really matter. Even better, so many of the scandals attached to Hillary have been so patently absurd that they suck the energy out of any genuine scandal. She’s been the target of a couple dozen Congressional investigations, all of which received a lot of press attention and all of which ended with a quiet ‘no actual wrongdoing was found’ report.

The Republicans will attack her, to be sure. The problem for them is that so many of those attacks will be clearly deranged. Every time some fuckwit calls her Hitlery, or attacks her as a Communist lesbian who killed Vince Foster to prevent him from revealing the Arkansas drug smuggling ring, it’ll chip away at any legitimate attacks that could (and should) be made against her. In that sense, the crazier the Hillary conspiracy theory, the better for her candidacy.

Hitlery - delusional fuckwit candidate for tyrant

Hitlery – delusional fuckwit candidate for tyrant

Third, like her or not, as president Hillary Clinton can be counted on to do some things no Republican would do. Like protect marriage equality and the Affordable Care Act. Hillary may not want to move the U.S. forward very far or very quickly, but at least she’s not trying to drag us back to some whitebread misguided fantasy of the 1950s.

I admit, Hillary Clinton isn’t the candidate I’d have picked. She’s not progressive enough for me, and she’s overly concerned with secrecy (though it’s hard to blame her for that, given the public shark pool she’s lived in for the last three decades or so). She’s too friendly with Wall Street, and she’s too inclined to consider the politics of an issue before anything else. But she’s pragmatic, she’s smart, and she’s been around the block a few times. We could do a lot worse.

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6 thoughts on “that’s done, then

  1. the analysis of candidates for the presidency this time around is as easy as it has been in many years. that is, to those with a modicum of a rational mind and willing to set the bias-snark until at least a sentence has been uttered.

    to me, the analysis is ok… the problem is the electorate. yes, the analysis there looks good: demographic shifts, and all of that statistical black magic and non-linearity effects in the Electoral College process. but then, one reads stuff like this [ http://www.nytimes.com/2015/04/15/opinion/has-obamacare-turned-voters-against-sharing-the-wealth.html ], and it come plausible that a “tembleque” like Jeb Bush can win.

    the electorate these days are very gullible through repetition=facts, and sets the comfort of some dissonance to play out. of course, the non-linearity of the Electoral College, and the thrills of Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado and other states makes it even harder to know if one should induce vomiting before the election, or just vomit as a gag reflex after it.

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    • Bush would, I think, come the closest to winning. Or not losing. Except that the hard political right wing truly despises him. If he’s the nominee, I suspect a lot of them will prefer to sit out the election. And there are others in the extreme right who’d rather Hillary win than some ‘Republican in Name Only’, if only because Hillary’s presidency would hasten the day when the inevitable New Armed Revolution will take place.

      But yes, it’s actually possible that somebody other than Hillary could win. But the odds are really against it.

      Also…we still miss you on FB.

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      • I can only hope that the indifference from the right wing on Bush is to greater detriment than what can be from Democrats on Hillary, in the key states, which may still be dominated by the GOP faithful.

        (it is my understanding that R. Perry’s new glasses has come to their first use: [http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/04/17/rick-perry-read-a-book-on-economic-and-won-t-shut-up-about-it.html]… I got to get me some of those.)

        yes, sorry to be missing. still miffed at facebook… I am finding new life elsewhere, and we will see if it holds. it will never compensate for the banter of facebook.

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